2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
IND @ BAL – Week 5 2021
IND
BAL
IND
AWAY
25@31
BAL +6
FINAL · WEEK 5
2021 SEASON
BAL
HOME
TIER B
PICK: BAL
PICK WONATS ✗
Model confidence: BAL 61%Projected margin: 4.5
BAL
PICK SIDE
-7.5
SPREAD
4.5
PROJ MARGIN
-294
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
BAL B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected BAL by 4.5. Actual: 6 points. The model was within 1.5 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 1.5 points -- a bad-beat loss.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -7.5 | BAL market line | |
| MODEL ML | -294 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -356 | Won · +$0.34 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
IND
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
BAL
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Road Favorite 0-5 ATS (0%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
69°F
WIND
6 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
IND
Jonathan Taylor
RB
373.1SEASON PPR
Carson Wentz
QB
258.0SEASON PPR
Michael Pittman
WR
238.6SEASON PPR
BAL
Mark Andrews
TE
301.1SEASON PPR
Lamar Jackson
QB
240.0SEASON PPR
Marquise Brown
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| IND@BALW3 2023 | IND 22, BAL 19 | BAL | L |
| BAL@INDW9 2020 | BAL 24, IND 10 | BAL | W |
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES