Colts vs Ravens – Week 5 2021
IND
BAL
IND
AWAY
25@31
BAL BY 6
FINAL · WEEK 5
2021 SEASON
M&T Bank Stadium · Baltimore, MD
BAL
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Indianapolis Colts 25, Baltimore Ravens 31.
Going in, our model had favored Baltimore Ravens at 61% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 5 Colts, 1 Ravens.
Model confidence: BAL 61%Our line: BAL -3.9
ODDS
SPREAD
BAL -7.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
BAL -3.9
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
BAL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
61%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 5
+0.045Net EPA / play-0.065
+0.051 (13)Offense EPA / play+0.005 (19)
+0.006 (15)Defense EPA / play+0.070 (27)
44.3% (16)Offense success %46.4% (10)
GAME NARRATIVE
BAL B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected BAL by 3.9. Actual: 6 points. The model was within 2.1 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 1.5 points, a bad-beat loss.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
IND
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
BAL
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Road Favorite 0-5 ATS (0%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
69°F
WIND
6 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Indianapolis ColtsPASSING
Carson Wentz3563 yd · 27 TD · 7 INT
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAL@INDW1 2026 | BAL 41, IND 23 | BAL | W |
| IND@BALW3 2023 | IND 22, BAL 19 | BAL | L |
| BAL@INDW9 2020 | BAL 24, IND 10 | BAL | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSIND vs BAL
Our model takes Baltimore Ravens at 61% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project BAL by 3.9. The market has BAL at -7.5.
Baltimore Ravens won, IND 25, BAL 31. Our model had favored Baltimore Ravens at 61% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Baltimore Ravens at -7.5, meaning the book expects Baltimore Ravens to win by 7.5 points.
In Week 5, the Indianapolis Colts were without 5 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Baltimore Ravens were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 46.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 49.5, 3.0 above the market.
Week 5 of the 2021 season, MON 8:15 PM.
Baltimore Ravens, BAL 41, IND 23 in Week 1 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Indianapolis Colts: IND +0.045 against BAL -0.065.
