Packers vs Bengals – Week 5 2021
GB
CIN
GB
AWAY
25@22
GB BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 5
2021 SEASON
Paycor Stadium · Cincinnati, OH
CIN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Green Bay Packers 25, Cincinnati Bengals 22.
Going in, our model had favored Green Bay Packers at 63% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Packers, 2 Bengals.
Model confidence: GB 63%Our line: GB -4.6
ODDS
SPREAD
GB -2.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
GB -4.6
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
GB · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
63%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 5
+0.127Net EPA / play+0.069
+0.134 (3)Offense EPA / play+0.057 (12)
+0.006 (16)Defense EPA / play-0.012 (13)
48.6% (3)Offense success %44.2% (17)
GAME NARRATIVE
GB B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected GB by 4.6. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 1.6 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 1.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
GB
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 2-4 ATS (33%)
CIN
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
76°F
WIND
12 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSGB vs CIN
Our model takes Green Bay Packers at 63% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project GB by 4.6. The market has GB at -2.0.
Green Bay Packers won, GB 25, CIN 22. Our model had favored Green Bay Packers at 63% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Green Bay Packers at -2.0, meaning the book expects Green Bay Packers to win by 2.0 points.
In Week 5, the Green Bay Packers were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Cincinnati Bengals were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 50.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 49.5, 0.5 below the market.
Week 5 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Green Bay Packers, CIN 18, GB 27 in Week 6 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Green Bay Packers: GB +0.127 against CIN +0.069.
