Jets vs Falcons – Week 5 2021
NYJ
ATL
NYJ
AWAY
20@27
ATL BY 7
FINAL · WEEK 5
2021 SEASON
Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Atlanta, GA
ATL
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New York Jets 20, Atlanta Falcons 27.
Going in, our model had favored Atlanta Falcons at 53% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 4 Jets, 5 Falcons.
Model confidence: ATL 53%Our line: ATL -1.0
ODDS
SPREAD
ATL -3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
ATL -1.0
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
ATL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
53%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 5
-0.220Net EPA / play-0.180
-0.092 (27)Offense EPA / play-0.098 (28)
+0.128 (32)Defense EPA / play+0.082 (29)
41.6% (23)Offense success %40.4% (29)
GAME NARRATIVE
ATL C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked ATL. Projected margin: 1.0. Actual: 7. Off by 6.0 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 4.0 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NYJ
Home Underdog 3-5 ATS (38%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
ATL
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
63°F
WIND
8 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
ATL
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New York JetsPASSING
Zach Wilson2334 yd · 9 TD · 11 INT
RECEIVING
Elijah Moore43 rec · 538 yd · 5 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATL@NYJW13 2025 | ATL 24, NYJ 27 | ATL | L |
| ATL@NYJW13 2023 | ATL 13, NYJ 8 | ATL | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNYJ vs ATL
Our model takes Atlanta Falcons at 53% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project ATL by 1.0. The market has ATL at -3.0.
Atlanta Falcons won, NYJ 20, ATL 27. Our model had favored Atlanta Falcons at 53% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Atlanta Falcons at -3.0, meaning the book expects Atlanta Falcons to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 5, the New York Jets were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Atlanta Falcons were without 5 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 45.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.0, 1.5 above the market.
Week 5 of the 2021 season, SUN 9:30 AM.
New York Jets, ATL 24, NYJ 27 in Week 13 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Atlanta Falcons: NYJ -0.220 against ATL -0.180.
