2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
NYJ @ ATL – Week 5 2021
NYJ
ATL
NYJ
AWAY
20@27
ATL +7
FINAL · WEEK 5
2021 SEASON
ATL
HOME
TIER C
PICK: ATL
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: ATL 53%Projected margin: 0.6
ATL
PICK SIDE
-3.0
SPREAD
0.6
PROJ MARGIN
-154
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
ATL C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked ATL. Projected margin: 0.6. Actual: 7. Off by 6.4 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 4.0 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.0 | ATL market line | |
| MODEL ML | -154 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -153 | Won · +$0.65 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
NYJ
Home Underdog 3-5 ATS (38%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
ATL
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
63°F
WIND
8 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
NYJ
Michael Carter
RB
154.4SEASON PPR
Zach Wilson
QB
151.9SEASON PPR
Elijah Moore
WR
138.2SEASON PPR
ATL
Cordarrelle Patterson
RB
234.6SEASON PPR
Matt Ryan
QB
222.9SEASON PPR
Kyle Pitts
TE
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATL@NYJW13 2025 | ATL 24, NYJ 27 | ATL | L |
| ATL@NYJW13 2023 | ATL 13, NYJ 8 | ATL | W |
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES