Bills vs Chiefs – Week 5 2021
BUF
KC
BUF
AWAY
38@20
BUF BY 18
FINAL · WEEK 5
2021 SEASON
GEHA Field at Arrowhead · Kansas City, MO
KC
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Buffalo Bills 38, Kansas City Chiefs 20.
Going in, our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 59% win probability, and the pick won.
Model confidence: BUF 59%Our line: BUF -3.1
ODDS
SPREAD
BUF +2.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
BUF -3.1
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
BUF · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
59%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 5
+0.242Net EPA / play+0.119
+0.101 (4)Offense EPA / play+0.144 (1)
-0.141 (1)Defense EPA / play+0.025 (20)
47.7% (5)Offense success %51.1% (1)
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BUF. Projected margin: 3.1. Actual: 18. Off by 14.9 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 20.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
BUF
Divisional 4-1 ATS (80%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Windy 2-3 ATS (40%)
KC
Windy 4-1 ATS (80%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
76°F
WIND
0 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| KC@BUFW9 2025 | KC 21, BUF 28 | BUF | W |
| KC@BUFW11 2024 | KC 21, BUF 30 | BUF | W |
| BUF@KCW14 2023 | BUF 20, KC 17 | KC | L |
| BUF@KCW6 2022 | BUF 24, KC 20 | BUF | W |
| KC@BUFW6 2020 | KC 26, BUF 17 | KC | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSBUF vs KC
Our model takes Buffalo Bills at 59% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project BUF by 3.1. The market has BUF at +2.5.
Buffalo Bills won, BUF 38, KC 20. Our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 59% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Buffalo Bills at +2.5, meaning the book expects Buffalo Bills to win by 2.5 points.
Sportsbooks have this game at 57.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.7, 11.3 below the market.
Week 5 of the 2021 season, SUN 8:20 PM.
Buffalo Bills, KC 21, BUF 28 in Week 9 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Buffalo Bills: BUF +0.242 against KC +0.119.
