2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
CHI @ LV – Week 5 2021
CHI
LV
CHI
AWAY
20@9
CHI +11
FINAL · WEEK 5
2021 SEASON
LV
HOME
TIER C
PICK: LV
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: LV 53%Projected margin: 1.3
LV
PICK SIDE
-5.5
SPREAD
1.3
PROJ MARGIN
-221
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
LV C-tier pick misses. CHI takes it.
MISSED
Model picked LV but CHI won. Projected margin was 1.3 -- the model overestimated by 12.3 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 16.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -5.5 | LV market line | |
| MODEL ML | -221 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -245 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
CHI
Divisional 1-4 ATS (20%)Home Underdog 1-4 ATS (20%)
LV
Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
CHI
Darnell Mooney
WR
219.7SEASON PPR
David Montgomery
RB
195.0SEASON PPR
Justin Fields
QB
126.8SEASON PPR
LV
Hunter Renfrow
WR
259.1SEASON PPR
Derek Carr
QB
257.0SEASON PPR
Josh Jacobs
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHI@LVW4 2025 | CHI 25, LV 24 | LV | L |
| LV@CHIW7 2023 | LV 12, CHI 30 | LV | L |
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES