2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
MIA @ TB – Week 5 2021
MIA
TB
MIA
AWAY
17@45
TB +28
FINAL · WEEK 5
2021 SEASON
TB
HOME
TIER B
PICK: TB
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: TB 62%Projected margin: 5.7
TB
PICK SIDE
-11.0
SPREAD
5.7
PROJ MARGIN
-487
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
TB B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked TB. Projected margin: 5.7. Actual: 28. Off by 22.3 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 17.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -11.0 | TB market line | |
| MODEL ML | -487 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -564 | Won · +$0.21 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
MIA
Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
TB
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 3-6 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
84°F
WIND
7 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
MIA
Jaylen Waddle
WR
247.8SEASON PPR
Tua Tagovailoa
QB
180.9SEASON PPR
Myles Gaskin
RB
173.6SEASON PPR
TB
Tom Brady
QB
374.7SEASON PPR
Mike Evans
WR
262.5SEASON PPR
Leonard Fournette
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TB@MIAW17 2025 | TB 17, MIA 20 | MIA | W |
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES