Dolphins vs Buccaneers – Week 5 2021
MIA
TB
MIA
AWAY
17@45
TB BY 28
FINAL · WEEK 5
2021 SEASON
Raymond James Stadium · Tampa, FL
TB
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Miami Dolphins 17, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 45.
Going in, our model had favored Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 62% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Buccaneers.
Model confidence: TB 62%Our line: TB -4.3
ODDS
SPREAD
TB -11.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
TB -4.3
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
TB · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
62%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 5
-0.031Net EPA / play+0.217
-0.059 (22)Offense EPA / play+0.137 (2)
-0.028 (10)Defense EPA / play-0.080 (4)
41.3% (25)Offense success %49.4% (2)
GAME NARRATIVE
TB B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked TB. Projected margin: 4.3. Actual: 28. Off by 23.7 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 17.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
MIA
Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
TB
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 3-6 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
84°F
WIND
7 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
TB
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Miami DolphinsPASSING
Tua Tagovailoa2653 yd · 16 TD · 10 INT
RUSHING
Myles Gaskin612 yd · 3 TD
Duke Johnson330 yd · 3 TD
Salvon Ahmed149 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TB@MIAW17 2025 | TB 17, MIA 20 | MIA | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSMIA vs TB
Our model takes Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 62% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project TB by 4.3. The market has TB at -11.0.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers won, MIA 17, TB 45. Our model had favored Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 62% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Tampa Bay Buccaneers at -11.0, meaning the book expects Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win by 11.0 points.
In Week 5, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 48.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 49.4, 1.4 above the market.
Week 5 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Miami Dolphins, TB 17, MIA 20 in Week 17 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: MIA -0.031 against TB +0.217.
