Buccaneers vs Dolphins – Week 17 2025
TB
MIA
TB
AWAY
17@20
MIA BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 17
2025 SEASON
Hard Rock Stadium · Miami Gardens, FL
MIA
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17, Miami Dolphins 20.
Going in, our model had favored Miami Dolphins at 61% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Buccaneers, 5 Dolphins.
Model confidence: MIA 61%Our line: MIA -3.7
ODDS
SPREAD
MIA +5.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
MIA -3.7
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
MIA · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
61%
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 17
-0.022Net EPA / play-0.105
-0.009 (20)Offense EPA / play-0.017 (22)
+0.013 (17)Defense EPA / play+0.088 (26)
42.4% (24)Offense success %41.9% (27)
GAME NARRATIVE
MIA C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected MIA by 3.7. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 0.7 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 8.5 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
TB
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
MIA
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
80°F
WIND
3 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 17
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 17 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSTB vs MIA
Our model takes Miami Dolphins at 61% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project MIA by 3.7. The market has MIA at +5.5.
Miami Dolphins won, TB 17, MIA 20. Our model had favored Miami Dolphins at 61% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Miami Dolphins at +5.5, meaning the book expects Miami Dolphins to win by 5.5 points.
In Week 17, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Miami Dolphins were without 5 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 44.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.4, 1.9 above the market.
Week 17 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers, MIA 17, TB 45 in Week 5 of 2021.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: TB -0.022 against MIA -0.105.
