2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
TB @ MIA – Week 17 2025
TB
MIA
TB
AWAY
17@20
MIA +3
FINAL · WEEK 17
2025 SEASON
MIA
HOME
TIER C
PICK: MIA
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: MIA 61%Projected margin: 1.7
MIA
PICK SIDE
+5.5
SPREAD
1.7
PROJ MARGIN
+221
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
MIA C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected MIA by 1.7. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 1.3 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 8.5 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | +5.5 | MIA market line | |
| MODEL ML | +221 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | +221 | Won · +$2.21 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
TB
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
MIA
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
80°F
WIND
3 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
TB
B.Mayfield
QB
271.9SEASON PPR
E.Egbuka
WR
195.7SEASON PPR
R.White
RB
143.0SEASON PPR
MIA
D.Achane
RB
322.8SEASON PPR
J.Waddle
WR
194.1SEASON PPR
T.Tagovailoa
QB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 17
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA@TBW5 2021 | MIA 17, TB 45 | TB | W |
WEEK 17 · OTHER GAMES