NYG @ LV – Week 17 2025
NYG
LV
NYG
AWAY
34@10
NYG BY 24
FINAL · WEEK 17
2025 SEASON
Allegiant Stadium · Las Vegas, NV
LV
HOME
Model confidence: NYG 50%Our line: NYG +0.0
NYG
PICK SIDE
-3.0
MARKET SPREAD
+0.0
OUR LINE
+100
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 17
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.075Net EPA / play-0.240
+0.012Offense EPA / play-0.215
+0.087Defense EPA / play+0.024
42.1%Offense success %37.6%
47.0%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
NYG C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked NYG. Projected margin: 0.0. Actual: 24. Off by 24.0 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 21.0 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | NYG | LV |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -162 | +136 |
| Our fair price | +100 | -100 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD NYG -3.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.65
OUR NUMBER
50%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
59%
DIFFERENCE
-9%
Both figures are for NYG. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
NYG
J.Dart
QB
241.6 SEASON PPR
W.Robinson
WR
217.9 SEASON PPR
T.Tracy
RB
160.8 SEASON PPR
LV
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New York GiantsPASSING
J.Dart2272 yd · 15 TD · 5 INT
RUSHING
T.Tracy740 yd · 2 TD
J.Dart487 yd · 9 TD
D.Singletary437 yd · 5 TD
RECEIVING
W.Robinson92 rec · 1014 yd · 4 TD
D.Slayton37 rec · 538 yd · 1 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 17
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYG@LVW9 2023 | NYG 6, LV 30 | LV | W |
| LV@NYGW9 2021 | LV 16, NYG 23 | LV | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSNYG vs LV
QUESTIONS
Our model takes New York Giants at 50% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project LV by 0.0. The market has NYG at -3.0.
The model projects 44.6 combined points. The market total is 40.5.
Week 17 of the 2025 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Las Vegas Raiders, NYG 6, LV 30 in Week 9 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, New York Giants: NYG -0.075 against LV -0.240.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 17 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
