ARI @ CIN – Week 17 2025
ARI
CIN
ARI
AWAY
14@37
CIN BY 23
FINAL · WEEK 17
2025 SEASON
Paycor Stadium · Cincinnati, OH
CIN
HOME
Model confidence: CIN 73%Our line: CIN -8.1
CIN
PICK SIDE
-7.0
MARKET SPREAD
-8.1
OUR LINE
-265
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 17
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.107Net EPA / play-0.138
-0.018Offense EPA / play-0.009
+0.088Defense EPA / play+0.130
43.0%Offense success %45.5%
48.5%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
CIN A-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked CIN. Projected margin: 8.1. Actual: 23. Off by 14.9 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 16.0 points.
Another data point for the model. A-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | ARI | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +275 | -345 |
| Our fair price | +265 | -265 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD CIN -7.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.36
OUR NUMBER
73%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
74%
DIFFERENCE
-2%
Both figures are for CIN. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
ARI
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)Home Underdog 1-5 ATS (17%)
CIN
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
65°F
WIND
9 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
ARI
T.McBride
TE
315.9 SEASON PPR
J.Brissett
QB
227.4 SEASON PPR
Mi.Wilson
WR
220.6 SEASON PPR
CIN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Arizona CardinalsPASSING
J.Brissett3366 yd · 23 TD · 8 INT
RUSHING
M.Carter333 yd · 1 TD
E.Demercado312 yd · 0 TD
Z.Knight269 yd · 4 TD
RECEIVING
T.McBride126 rec · 1239 yd · 11 TD
Mi.Wilson78 rec · 1006 yd · 7 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 17
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CIN@ARIW5 2023 | CIN 34, ARI 20 | CIN | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSARI vs CIN
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Cincinnati Bengals at 73% win probability, a Tier A pick. The margin models project CIN by 8.1. The market has CIN at -7.0.
The model projects 46.0 combined points. The market total is 52.5.
Week 17 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Cincinnati Bengals, CIN 34, ARI 20 in Week 5 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Arizona Cardinals: ARI -0.107 against CIN -0.138.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 17 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
