Cardinals vs Bengals – Week 17 2025
ARI
CIN
ARI
AWAY
14@37
CIN BY 23
FINAL · WEEK 17
2025 SEASON
Paycor Stadium · Cincinnati, OH
CIN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Arizona Cardinals 14, Cincinnati Bengals 37.
Going in, our model had favored Cincinnati Bengals at 73% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 4 Cardinals, 4 Bengals.
Model confidence: CIN 73%Our line: CIN -8.1
ODDS
SPREAD
CIN -7.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
CIN -8.1
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
CIN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
73%
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 17
-0.107Net EPA / play-0.138
-0.018 (23)Offense EPA / play-0.009 (19)
+0.088 (27)Defense EPA / play+0.130 (29)
43.0% (22)Offense success %45.5% (11)
GAME NARRATIVE
CIN A-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked CIN. Projected margin: 8.1. Actual: 23. Off by 14.9 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 16.0 points.
Another data point for the model. A-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
ARI
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)Home Underdog 1-5 ATS (17%)
CIN
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
65°F
WIND
9 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 17
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CIN@ARIW5 2023 | CIN 34, ARI 20 | CIN | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 17 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSARI vs CIN
Our model takes Cincinnati Bengals at 73% win probability, a Tier A pick. The margin models project CIN by 8.1. The market has CIN at -7.0.
Cincinnati Bengals won, ARI 14, CIN 37. Our model had favored Cincinnati Bengals at 73% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Cincinnati Bengals at -7.0, meaning the book expects Cincinnati Bengals to win by 7.0 points.
In Week 17, the Arizona Cardinals were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Cincinnati Bengals were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 52.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.0, 6.5 below the market.
Week 17 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Cincinnati Bengals, CIN 34, ARI 20 in Week 5 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Arizona Cardinals: ARI -0.107 against CIN -0.138.
