Patriots vs Jets – Week 17 2025
NE
NYJ
NE
AWAY
42@10
NE BY 32
FINAL · WEEK 17
2025 SEASON
MetLife Stadium · East Rutherford, NJ
NYJ
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New England Patriots 42, New York Jets 10.
Going in, our model had favored New England Patriots at 74% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 7 Patriots, 4 Jets.
Model confidence: NE 74%Our line: NE -8.8
ODDS
SPREAD
NE -12.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
NE -8.8
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
NE · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 17
+0.205Net EPA / play-0.274
+0.158 (1)Offense EPA / play-0.127 (29)
-0.047 (11)Defense EPA / play+0.147 (31)
48.4% (3)Offense success %40.7% (29)
GAME NARRATIVE
NE A-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked NE. Projected margin: 8.8. Actual: 32. Off by 23.2 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 19.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
COLD GAME
29°F at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Another data point for the model. A-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NE
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
NYJ
Divisional 0-6 ATS (0%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
29°F
WIND
4 MPH
COLD GAME
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 17
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ@NEW6 2026 | NYJ 19, NE 26 | NE | W |
| NYJ@NEW11 2025 | NYJ 14, NE 27 | NE | W |
| NYJ@NEW8 2024 | NYJ 22, NE 25 | NYJ | L |
| NE@NYJW3 2024 | NE 3, NYJ 24 | NYJ | W |
| NYJ@NEW18 2023 | NYJ 17, NE 3 | NE | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 17 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNE vs NYJ
Our model takes New England Patriots at 74% win probability, a Tier A pick. The margin models project NE by 8.8. The market has NE at -12.5.
New England Patriots won, NE 42, NYJ 10. Our model had favored New England Patriots at 74% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has New England Patriots at -12.5, meaning the book expects New England Patriots to win by 12.5 points.
In Week 17, the New England Patriots were without 7 players (Out or Doubtful) and the New York Jets were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 42.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 44.6, 2.1 above the market.
Week 17 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
New England Patriots, NYJ 19, NE 26 in Week 6 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, New England Patriots: NE +0.205 against NYJ -0.274.
