2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
NE @ NYJ – Week 17 2025
NE
NYJ
NE
AWAY
42@10
NE +32
FINAL · WEEK 17
2025 SEASON
NYJ
HOME
TIER A
PICK: NE
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: NE 74%Projected margin: -6.4
NE
PICK SIDE
-12.5
SPREAD
-6.4
PROJ MARGIN
-604
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
NE A-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked NE. Projected margin: 6.4. Actual: 32. Off by 25.6 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 19.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
COLD GAME
29°F at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Another data point for the model. A-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -12.5 | NE market line | |
| MODEL ML | -604 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | — | Won · +$0.17 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
NE
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
NYJ
Divisional 0-6 ATS (0%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
29°F
WIND
4 MPH
COLD GAME
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
NE
D.Maye
QB
352.0SEASON PPR
S.Diggs
WR
210.3SEASON PPR
T.Henderson
RB
206.2SEASON PPR
NYJ
B.Hall
RB
207.7SEASON PPR
J.Fields
QB
142.7SEASON PPR
G.Wilson
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 17
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ@NEW11 2025 | NYJ 14, NE 27 | NE | W |
| NYJ@NEW8 2024 | NYJ 22, NE 25 | NYJ | L |
| NE@NYJW3 2024 | NE 3, NYJ 24 | NYJ | W |
| NYJ@NEW18 2023 | NYJ 17, NE 3 | NE | L |
| NE@NYJW3 2023 | NE 15, NYJ 10 | NE | W |
WEEK 17 · OTHER GAMES