2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
BAL @ GB – Week 17 2025
BAL
GB
BAL
AWAY
41@24
BAL +17
FINAL · WEEK 17
2025 SEASON
GB
HOME
TIER B
PICK: GB
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: GB 65%Projected margin: 3.1
GB
PICK SIDE
-2.5
SPREAD
3.1
PROJ MARGIN
-143
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
GB B-tier pick misses. BAL takes it.
MISSED
Model picked GB but BAL won. Projected margin was 3.1 -- the model overestimated by 20.1 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 19.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -2.5 | GB market line | |
| MODEL ML | -143 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | — | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
BAL
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GB
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
36°F
WIND
10 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
BAL
D.Henry
RB
279.5SEASON PPR
Z.Flowers
WR
243.3SEASON PPR
L.Jackson
QB
214.9SEASON PPR
GB
J.Jacobs
RB
237.1SEASON PPR
J.Love
QB
235.1SEASON PPR
R.Doubs
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 17
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| GB@BALW15 2021 | GB 31, BAL 30 | GB | W |
WEEK 17 · OTHER GAMES