BAL @ GB – Week 17 2025
BAL
GB
BAL
AWAY
41@24
BAL BY 17
FINAL · WEEK 17
2025 SEASON
Lambeau Field · Green Bay, WI
GB
HOME
Model confidence: GB 65%Our line: GB -5.3
GB
PICK SIDE
-2.5
MARKET SPREAD
-5.3
OUR LINE
-187
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 17
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.010Net EPA / play+0.082
+0.034Offense EPA / play+0.115
+0.024Defense EPA / play+0.033
44.6%Offense success %47.7%
44.1%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
GB B-tier pick misses. BAL takes it.
MISSED
Model picked GB but BAL won. Projected margin was 5.3, the model overestimated by 22.3 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 19.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | BAL | GB |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +120 | -142 |
| Our fair price | +187 | -187 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD GB -2.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
65%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
56%
DIFFERENCE
+9%
Both figures are for GB. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
BAL
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GB
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
36°F
WIND
10 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
BAL
D.Henry
RB
279.5 SEASON PPR
Z.Flowers
WR
243.3 SEASON PPR
L.Jackson
QB
214.9 SEASON PPR
GB
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Baltimore RavensPASSING
L.Jackson2549 yd · 21 TD · 7 INT
RUSHING
D.Henry1595 yd · 16 TD
L.Jackson349 yd · 2 TD
K.Mitchell341 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
Z.Flowers86 rec · 1211 yd · 5 TD
M.Andrews48 rec · 422 yd · 5 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 17
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| GB@BALW15 2021 | GB 31, BAL 30 | GB | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSBAL vs GB
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Green Bay Packers at 65% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project GB by 5.3. The market has GB at -2.5.
The model projects 44.8 combined points. The market total is 38.5.
Week 17 of the 2025 season, SAT 8:00 PM.
Green Bay Packers, GB 31, BAL 30 in Week 15 of 2021.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Green Bay Packers: BAL +0.010 against GB +0.082.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 17 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
