Ravens vs Packers – Week 17 2025
BAL
GB
BAL
AWAY
41@24
BAL BY 17
FINAL · WEEK 17
2025 SEASON
Lambeau Field · Green Bay, WI
GB
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Baltimore Ravens 41, Green Bay Packers 24.
Going in, our model had favored Green Bay Packers at 65% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 2 Ravens, 3 Packers.
Model confidence: GB 65%Our line: GB -5.3
ODDS
SPREAD
GB -2.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
GB -5.3
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
GB · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
65%
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 17
+0.010Net EPA / play+0.082
+0.034 (12)Offense EPA / play+0.115 (4)
+0.024 (20)Defense EPA / play+0.033 (22)
44.6% (13)Offense success %47.7% (5)
GAME NARRATIVE
GB B-tier pick misses. BAL takes it.
MISSED
Model picked GB but BAL won. Projected margin was 5.3, the model overestimated by 22.3 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 19.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
BAL
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GB
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
36°F
WIND
10 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 17
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| GB@BALW15 2021 | GB 31, BAL 30 | GB | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 17 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSBAL vs GB
Our model takes Green Bay Packers at 65% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project GB by 5.3. The market has GB at -2.5.
Baltimore Ravens won, BAL 41, GB 24. Our model had favored Green Bay Packers at 65% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Green Bay Packers at -2.5, meaning the book expects Green Bay Packers to win by 2.5 points.
In Week 17, the Baltimore Ravens were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Green Bay Packers were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 38.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 44.8, 6.3 above the market.
Week 17 of the 2025 season, SAT 8:00 PM.
Green Bay Packers, GB 31, BAL 30 in Week 15 of 2021.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Green Bay Packers: BAL +0.010 against GB +0.082.
