Bears vs 49ers – Week 17 2025
CHI
SF
CHI
AWAY
38@42
SF BY 4
FINAL · WEEK 17
2025 SEASON
Levi's Stadium · Santa Clara, CA
SF
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Chicago Bears 38, San Francisco 49ers 42.
Going in, our model had favored San Francisco 49ers at 62% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Bears, 2 49ers.
Model confidence: SF 62%Our line: SF -4.1
ODDS
SPREAD
SF -3.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
SF -4.1
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
SF · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
62%
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 17
+0.061Net EPA / play+0.018
+0.080 (8)Offense EPA / play+0.088 (6)
+0.018 (19)Defense EPA / play+0.070 (24)
45.8% (9)Offense success %48.3% (4)
GAME NARRATIVE
SF B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected SF by 4.1. Actual: 4 points. The model was within 0.1 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 6 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 0.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CHI
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
SF
Road Favorite 6-0 ATS (100%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
53°F
WIND
5 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 17
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHI@SFW14 2024 | CHI 13, SF 38 | SF | W |
| SF@CHIW1 2022 | SF 10, CHI 19 | SF | L |
| SF@CHIW8 2021 | SF 33, CHI 22 | CHI | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 17 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCHI vs SF
Our model takes San Francisco 49ers at 62% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project SF by 4.1. The market has SF at -3.5.
San Francisco 49ers won, CHI 38, SF 42. Our model had favored San Francisco 49ers at 62% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has San Francisco 49ers at -3.5, meaning the book expects San Francisco 49ers to win by 3.5 points.
In Week 17, the Chicago Bears were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the San Francisco 49ers were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 51.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.9, 4.6 below the market.
Week 17 of the 2025 season, SUN 8:20 PM.
San Francisco 49ers, CHI 13, SF 38 in Week 14 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Chicago Bears: CHI +0.061 against SF +0.018.
