CHI @ SF – Week 17 2025
CHI
SF
CHI
AWAY
38@42
SF BY 4
FINAL · WEEK 17
2025 SEASON
Levi's Stadium · Santa Clara, CA
SF
HOME
Model confidence: SF 62%Our line: SF -4.1
SF
PICK SIDE
-3.5
MARKET SPREAD
-4.1
OUR LINE
-163
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 17
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.061Net EPA / play+0.018
+0.080Offense EPA / play+0.088
+0.018Defense EPA / play+0.070
45.8%Offense success %48.3%
46.7%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
SF B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected SF by 4.1. Actual: 4 points. The model was within 0.1 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 6 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 0.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | CHI | SF |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +170 | -205 |
| Our fair price | +163 | -163 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD SF -3.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.61
OUR NUMBER
62%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
64%
DIFFERENCE
-3%
Both figures are for SF. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CHI
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
SF
Road Favorite 6-0 ATS (100%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
53°F
WIND
5 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
CHI
C.Williams
QB
318.2 SEASON PPR
D.Swift
RB
228.6 SEASON PPR
D.Moore
WR
172.2 SEASON PPR
SF
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Chicago BearsPASSING
C.Williams3942 yd · 27 TD · 7 INT
RUSHING
D.Swift1087 yd · 9 TD
K.Monangai783 yd · 5 TD
C.Williams383 yd · 3 TD
RECEIVING
C.Loveland58 rec · 713 yd · 6 TD
D.Moore50 rec · 682 yd · 6 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 17
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHI@SFW14 2024 | CHI 13, SF 38 | SF | W |
| SF@CHIW1 2022 | SF 10, CHI 19 | SF | L |
| SF@CHIW8 2021 | SF 33, CHI 22 | CHI | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSCHI vs SF
QUESTIONS
Our model takes San Francisco 49ers at 62% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project SF by 4.1. The market has SF at -3.5.
The model projects 46.9 combined points. The market total is 51.5.
Week 17 of the 2025 season, SUN 8:20 PM.
San Francisco 49ers, CHI 13, SF 38 in Week 14 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Chicago Bears: CHI +0.061 against SF +0.018.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 17 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
