Texans vs Chargers – Week 17 2025
HOU
LAC
HOU
AWAY
20@16
HOU BY 4
FINAL · WEEK 17
2025 SEASON
SoFi Stadium · Inglewood, CA
LAC
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Houston Texans 20, Los Angeles Chargers 16.
Going in, our model had favored Los Angeles Chargers at 60% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 5 Texans, 4 Chargers.
Model confidence: LAC 60%Our line: LAC -3.3
ODDS
SPREAD
LAC -1.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
LAC -3.3
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
LAC · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
60%
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 17
+0.118Net EPA / play+0.059
-0.013 (21)Offense EPA / play-0.024 (25)
-0.131 (1)Defense EPA / play-0.083 (7)
41.3% (28)Offense success %43.1% (19)
GAME NARRATIVE
LAC C-tier pick misses. HOU takes it.
MISSED
Model picked LAC but HOU won. Projected margin was 3.3, the model overestimated by 7.3 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 5.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
HOU
No noteworthy trends
LAC
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Road Favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 17
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LAC@HOUW4 2022 | LAC 34, HOU 24 | LAC | W |
| LAC@HOUW16 2021 | LAC 29, HOU 41 | LAC | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 17 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSHOU vs LAC
Our model takes Los Angeles Chargers at 60% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project LAC by 3.3. The market has LAC at -1.5.
Houston Texans won, HOU 20, LAC 16. Our model had favored Los Angeles Chargers at 60% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Los Angeles Chargers at -1.5, meaning the book expects Los Angeles Chargers to win by 1.5 points.
In Week 17, the Houston Texans were without 5 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Los Angeles Chargers were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 40.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.8, 6.3 above the market.
Week 17 of the 2025 season, SAT 4:30 PM.
Los Angeles Chargers, LAC 34, HOU 24 in Week 4 of 2022.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Houston Texans: HOU +0.118 against LAC +0.059.
