2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
LAC @ HOU – Week 16 2021
LAC
HOU
LAC
AWAY
29@41
HOU +12
FINAL · WEEK 16
2021 SEASON
HOU
HOME
TIER A
PICK: LAC
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: LAC 66%Projected margin: -6.4
LAC
PICK SIDE
-13.5
SPREAD
-6.4
PROJ MARGIN
-698
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
LAC A-tier pick misses. HOU takes it.
MISSED
Model picked LAC but HOU won. Projected margin was 6.4 -- the model overestimated by 18.4 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 6 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 25.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -13.5 | LAC market line | |
| MODEL ML | -698 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -661 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
LAC
No noteworthy trends
HOU
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 5-3 ATS (63%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
LAC
Justin Herbert
QB
380.8SEASON PPR
Austin Ekeler
RB
343.8SEASON PPR
Keenan Allen
WR
257.8SEASON PPR
HOU
Brandin Cooks
WR
231.8SEASON PPR
Davis Mills
QB
157.0SEASON PPR
Rex Burkhead
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 16
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOU@LACW17 2025 | HOU 20, LAC 16 | LAC | L |
| LAC@HOUW4 2022 | LAC 34, HOU 24 | LAC | W |
WEEK 16 · OTHER GAMES