Chargers vs Texans – Week 16 2021
LAC
HOU
LAC
AWAY
29@41
HOU BY 12
FINAL · WEEK 16
2021 SEASON
NRG Stadium · Houston, TX
HOU
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Los Angeles Chargers 29, Houston Texans 41.
Going in, our model had favored Los Angeles Chargers at 66% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 1 Chargers, 1 Texans.
Model confidence: LAC 66%Our line: LAC -5.7
ODDS
SPREAD
LAC -13.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
LAC -5.7
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
LAC · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
66%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 16
+0.061Net EPA / play-0.212
+0.095 (6)Offense EPA / play-0.138 (31)
+0.033 (24)Defense EPA / play+0.074 (28)
47.6% (6)Offense success %37.4% (32)
GAME NARRATIVE
LAC A-tier pick misses. HOU takes it.
MISSED
Model picked LAC but HOU won. Projected margin was 5.7, the model overestimated by 17.7 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 6 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 25.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LAC
No noteworthy trends
HOU
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 5-3 ATS (63%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 16
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOU@LACW17 2025 | HOU 20, LAC 16 | LAC | L |
| LAC@HOUW4 2022 | LAC 34, HOU 24 | LAC | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 16 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSLAC vs HOU
Our model takes Los Angeles Chargers at 66% win probability, a Tier A pick. The margin models project LAC by 5.7. The market has LAC at -13.5.
Houston Texans won, LAC 29, HOU 41. Our model had favored Los Angeles Chargers at 66% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Los Angeles Chargers at -13.5, meaning the book expects Los Angeles Chargers to win by 13.5 points.
In Week 16, the Los Angeles Chargers were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Houston Texans were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 46.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.4, 1.4 above the market.
Week 16 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Houston Texans, HOU 20, LAC 16 in Week 17 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Los Angeles Chargers: LAC +0.061 against HOU -0.212.
