CHI @ SEA – Week 16 2021
CHI
SEA
CHI
AWAY
25@24
CHI BY 1
FINAL · WEEK 16
2021 SEASON
Lumen Field · Seattle, WA
SEA
HOME
Model confidence: SEA 60%Our line: SEA -3.5
SEA
PICK SIDE
-7.0
MARKET SPREAD
-3.5
OUR LINE
-151
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 16
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2021 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.127Net EPA / play+0.003
-0.100Offense EPA / play+0.031
+0.026Defense EPA / play+0.028
41.2%Offense success %43.2%
44.2%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
SEA B-tier pick misses. CHI takes it.
MISSED
Model picked SEA but CHI won. Projected margin was 3.5, the model overestimated by 4.5 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 8.0 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
COLD GAME
25°F at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | CHI | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +268 | -313 |
| Our fair price | +151 | -151 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD SEA -7.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
60%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
74%
DIFFERENCE
-13%
Both figures are for SEA. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CHI
Divisional 1-4 ATS (20%)Home Underdog 1-4 ATS (20%)
SEA
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
25°F
WIND
11 MPH
COLD GAME
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
CHI
Darnell Mooney
WR
219.7 SEASON PPR
David Montgomery
RB
195.0 SEASON PPR
Justin Fields
QB
126.8 SEASON PPR
SEA
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Chicago BearsPASSING
Justin Fields1870 yd · 7 TD · 10 INT
RUSHING
David Montgomery849 yd · 7 TD
Khalil Herbert433 yd · 2 TD
Justin Fields420 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
Darnell Mooney81 rec · 1055 yd · 4 TD
Cole Kmet60 rec · 612 yd · 0 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 16
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| SEA@CHIW17 2024 | SEA 6, CHI 3 | SEA | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSCHI vs SEA
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Seattle Seahawks at 60% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project SEA by 3.5. The market has SEA at -7.0.
The model projects 45.6 combined points. The market total is 41.0.
Week 16 of the 2021 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Seattle Seahawks, SEA 6, CHI 3 in Week 17 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Seattle Seahawks: CHI -0.127 against SEA +0.003.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 16 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
