Bears vs Seahawks – Week 16 2021
CHI
SEA
CHI
AWAY
25@24
CHI BY 1
FINAL · WEEK 16
2021 SEASON
Lumen Field · Seattle, WA
SEA
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Chicago Bears 25, Seattle Seahawks 24.
Going in, our model had favored Seattle Seahawks at 60% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 4 Bears, 1 Seahawks.
Model confidence: SEA 60%Our line: SEA -3.5
ODDS
SPREAD
SEA -7.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
SEA -3.5
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
SEA · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
60%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 16
-0.127Net EPA / play+0.003
-0.100 (29)Offense EPA / play+0.031 (14)
+0.026 (21)Defense EPA / play+0.028 (22)
41.2% (26)Offense success %43.2% (21)
GAME NARRATIVE
SEA B-tier pick misses. CHI takes it.
MISSED
Model picked SEA but CHI won. Projected margin was 3.5, the model overestimated by 4.5 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 8.0 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
COLD GAME
25°F at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CHI
Divisional 1-4 ATS (20%)Home Underdog 1-4 ATS (20%)
SEA
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
25°F
WIND
11 MPH
COLD GAME
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
CHI
219.7 SEASON PPR
195.0 SEASON PPR
126.8 SEASON PPR
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 16
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| SEA@CHIW17 2024 | SEA 6, CHI 3 | SEA | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 16 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCHI vs SEA
Our model takes Seattle Seahawks at 60% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project SEA by 3.5. The market has SEA at -7.0.
Chicago Bears won, CHI 25, SEA 24. Our model had favored Seattle Seahawks at 60% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Seattle Seahawks at -7.0, meaning the book expects Seattle Seahawks to win by 7.0 points.
In Week 16, the Chicago Bears were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Seattle Seahawks were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 41.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.6, 4.6 above the market.
Week 16 of the 2021 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Seattle Seahawks, SEA 6, CHI 3 in Week 17 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Seattle Seahawks: CHI -0.127 against SEA +0.003.
