Buccaneers vs Panthers – Week 16 2021
TB
CAR
TB
AWAY
32@6
TB BY 26
FINAL · WEEK 16
2021 SEASON
Bank of America Stadium · Charlotte, NC
CAR
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 32, Carolina Panthers 6.
Going in, our model had favored Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 67% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Buccaneers.
Model confidence: TB 67%Our line: TB -6.1
ODDS
SPREAD
TB -11.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
TB -6.1
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
TB · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
67%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 16
+0.217Net EPA / play-0.093
+0.137 (2)Offense EPA / play-0.138 (30)
-0.080 (4)Defense EPA / play-0.044 (7)
49.4% (2)Offense success %40.9% (27)
GAME NARRATIVE
TB A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked TB. Projected margin: 6.1. Actual: 26. Off by 19.9 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 14.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
TB
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 3-6 ATS (33%)
CAR
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
73°F
WIND
8 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
TB
Tom Brady
QB
374.7 SEASON PPR
Mike Evans
WR
262.5 SEASON PPR
Leonard Fournette
RB
255.6 SEASON PPR
CAR
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Tampa Bay BuccaneersPASSING
Tom Brady5316 yd · 43 TD · 12 INT
RUSHING
Leonard Fournette812 yd · 8 TD
Ronald Jones428 yd · 4 TD
Ke'Shawn Vaughn180 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
Chris Godwin Jr.98 rec · 1103 yd · 5 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 16
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAR@TBW18 2025 | CAR 14, TB 16 | TB | W |
| TB@CARW16 2025 | TB 20, CAR 23 | TB | L |
| CAR@TBW17 2024 | CAR 14, TB 48 | TB | W |
| TB@CARW13 2024 | TB 26, CAR 23 | TB | W |
| TB@CARW18 2023 | TB 9, CAR 0 | TB | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 16 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSTB vs CAR
Our model takes Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 67% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project TB by 6.1. The market has TB at -11.5.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers won, TB 32, CAR 6. Our model had favored Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 67% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Tampa Bay Buccaneers at -11.5, meaning the book expects Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win by 11.5 points.
In Week 16, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 44.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.2, 2.7 above the market.
Week 16 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers, CAR 14, TB 16 in Week 18 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: TB +0.217 against CAR -0.093.
