Colts vs Cardinals – Week 16 2021
IND
ARI
IND
AWAY
22@16
IND BY 6
FINAL · WEEK 16
2021 SEASON
State Farm Stadium · Glendale, AZ
ARI
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Indianapolis Colts 22, Arizona Cardinals 16.
Going in, our model had favored Indianapolis Colts at 59% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Colts, 1 Cardinals.
Model confidence: IND 59%Our line: IND -2.9
ODDS
SPREAD
IND +3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
IND -2.9
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
IND · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
59%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 16
+0.045Net EPA / play+0.122
+0.051 (13)Offense EPA / play+0.073 (9)
+0.006 (15)Defense EPA / play-0.049 (6)
44.3% (16)Offense success %46.8% (9)
GAME NARRATIVE
IND B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked IND. Projected margin: 2.9. Actual: 6. Off by 3.1 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 9 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 9.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
IND
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
ARI
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Indianapolis ColtsPASSING
Carson Wentz3563 yd · 27 TD · 7 INT
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 16
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARI@INDW6 2025 | ARI 27, IND 31 | IND | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 16 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSIND vs ARI
Our model takes Indianapolis Colts at 59% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project IND by 2.9. The market has IND at +3.0.
Indianapolis Colts won, IND 22, ARI 16. Our model had favored Indianapolis Colts at 59% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Indianapolis Colts at +3.0, meaning the book expects Indianapolis Colts to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 16, the Indianapolis Colts were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Arizona Cardinals were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 48.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.9, 1.1 below the market.
Week 16 of the 2021 season, SAT 8:15 PM.
Indianapolis Colts, ARI 27, IND 31 in Week 6 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Arizona Cardinals: IND +0.045 against ARI +0.122.
