IND @ ARI – Week 16 2021
IND
ARI
IND
AWAY
22@16
IND BY 6
FINAL · WEEK 16
2021 SEASON
State Farm Stadium · Glendale, AZ
ARI
HOME
Model confidence: IND 59%Our line: IND -2.9
IND
PICK SIDE
+3.0
MARKET SPREAD
-2.9
OUR LINE
-142
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 16
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2021 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.045Net EPA / play+0.122
+0.051Offense EPA / play+0.073
+0.006Defense EPA / play-0.049
44.3%Offense success %46.8%
45.8%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
IND B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked IND. Projected margin: 2.9. Actual: 6. Off by 3.1 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 9 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 9.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | IND | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +143 | -161 |
| Our fair price | -142 | +142 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD IND +3.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$1.54
OUR NUMBER
59%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
40%
DIFFERENCE
+19%
Both figures are for IND. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
IND
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
ARI
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
IND
Jonathan Taylor
RB
373.1 SEASON PPR
Carson Wentz
QB
258.0 SEASON PPR
Michael Pittman
WR
238.6 SEASON PPR
ARI
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Indianapolis ColtsPASSING
Carson Wentz3563 yd · 27 TD · 7 INT
RUSHING
Jonathan Taylor1811 yd · 18 TD
Nyheim Hines276 yd · 2 TD
Carson Wentz215 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
Michael Pittman88 rec · 1082 yd · 6 TD
Zach Pascal38 rec · 384 yd · 3 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 16
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARI@INDW6 2025 | ARI 27, IND 31 | IND | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSIND vs ARI
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Indianapolis Colts at 59% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project IND by 2.9. The market has IND at +3.0.
The model projects 46.9 combined points. The market total is 48.0.
Week 16 of the 2021 season, SAT 8:15 PM.
Indianapolis Colts, ARI 27, IND 31 in Week 6 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Arizona Cardinals: IND +0.045 against ARI +0.122.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the EdgeWEEK 16 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
