2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
IND @ ARI – Week 16 2021
IND
ARI
IND
AWAY
22@16
IND +6
FINAL · WEEK 16
2021 SEASON
ARI
HOME
TIER B
PICK: IND
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: IND 59%Projected margin: -3.2
IND
PICK SIDE
+3.0
SPREAD
-3.2
PROJ MARGIN
+154
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
IND B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected IND by 3.2. Actual: 6 points. The model was within 2.8 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 9 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 9.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | +3.0 | IND market line | |
| MODEL ML | +154 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | +143 | Won · +$1.54 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
IND
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
ARI
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
IND
Jonathan Taylor
RB
373.1SEASON PPR
Carson Wentz
QB
258.0SEASON PPR
Michael Pittman
WR
238.6SEASON PPR
ARI
Kyler Murray
QB
300.5SEASON PPR
James Conner
RB
257.7SEASON PPR
Christian Kirk
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 16
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARI@INDW6 2025 | ARI 27, IND 31 | IND | W |
WEEK 16 · OTHER GAMES