Jaguars vs Jets – Week 16 2021
JAX
NYJ
JAX
AWAY
21@26
NYJ BY 5
FINAL · WEEK 16
2021 SEASON
MetLife Stadium · East Rutherford, NJ
NYJ
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Jacksonville Jaguars 21, New York Jets 26.
Going in, our model had favored New York Jets at 52% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Jets.
Model confidence: NYJ 52%Our line: NYJ -0.5
ODDS
SPREAD
NYJ -2.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
NYJ -0.5
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
NYJ · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
52%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 16
-0.206Net EPA / play-0.220
-0.088 (26)Offense EPA / play-0.092 (27)
+0.118 (31)Defense EPA / play+0.128 (32)
44.0% (18)Offense success %41.6% (23)
GAME NARRATIVE
NYJ C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked NYJ. Projected margin: 0.5. Actual: 5. Off by 4.5 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 2.5 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
JAX
Home Underdog 3-5 ATS (38%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
NYJ
Home Underdog 3-5 ATS (38%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
47°F
WIND
0 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
NYJ
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 16
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ@JAXW15 2025 | NYJ 20, JAX 48 | JAX | W |
| NYJ@JAXW15 2024 | NYJ 32, JAX 25 | JAX | L |
| JAX@NYJW16 2022 | JAX 19, NYJ 3 | JAX | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 16 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSJAX vs NYJ
Our model takes New York Jets at 52% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project NYJ by 0.5. The market has NYJ at -2.5.
New York Jets won, JAX 21, NYJ 26. Our model had favored New York Jets at 52% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has New York Jets at -2.5, meaning the book expects New York Jets to win by 2.5 points.
In Week 16, the New York Jets were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 42.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.5, 4.0 above the market.
Week 16 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Jacksonville Jaguars, NYJ 20, JAX 48 in Week 15 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Jacksonville Jaguars: JAX -0.206 against NYJ -0.220.
