2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
JAX @ NYJ – Week 16 2021
JAX
NYJ
JAX
AWAY
21@26
NYJ +5
FINAL · WEEK 16
2021 SEASON
NYJ
HOME
TIER C
PICK: NYJ
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: NYJ 52%Projected margin: 0.1
NYJ
PICK SIDE
-2.5
SPREAD
0.1
PROJ MARGIN
-143
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
NYJ C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked NYJ. Projected margin: 0.1. Actual: 5. Off by 4.9 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 2.5 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -2.5 | NYJ market line | |
| MODEL ML | -143 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -125 | Won · +$0.70 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
JAX
Home Underdog 3-5 ATS (38%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
NYJ
Home Underdog 3-5 ATS (38%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
47°F
WIND
0 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
JAX
Trevor Lawrence
QB
199.0SEASON PPR
Marvin Jones
WR
180.2SEASON PPR
James Robinson
RB
173.9SEASON PPR
NYJ
Michael Carter
RB
154.4SEASON PPR
Zach Wilson
QB
151.9SEASON PPR
Elijah Moore
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 16
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ@JAXW15 2025 | NYJ 20, JAX 48 | JAX | W |
| NYJ@JAXW15 2024 | NYJ 32, JAX 25 | JAX | L |
| JAX@NYJW16 2022 | JAX 19, NYJ 3 | JAX | W |
WEEK 16 · OTHER GAMES