Jets vs Jaguars – Week 15 2024
NYJ
JAX
NYJ
AWAY
32@25
NYJ BY 7
FINAL · WEEK 15
2024 SEASON
EverBank Stadium · Jacksonville, FL
JAX
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New York Jets 32, Jacksonville Jaguars 25.
Going in, our model had favored Jacksonville Jaguars at 67% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 4 Jets, 1 Jaguars.
Model confidence: JAX 67%Our line: JAX -6.0
ODDS
SPREAD
JAX +3.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
JAX -6.0
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
JAX · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
67%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 15
-0.037Net EPA / play-0.149
-0.013 (17)Offense EPA / play-0.020 (18)
+0.024 (20)Defense EPA / play+0.129 (31)
42.6% (18)Offense success %41.5% (21)
GAME NARRATIVE
JAX B-tier pick misses. NYJ takes it.
MISSED
Model picked JAX but NYJ won. Projected margin was 6.0, the model overestimated by 13.0 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 3.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NYJ
road_favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)Road Favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)
JAX
divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)home_underdog 4-1 ATS (80%)Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Home Underdog 4-1 ATS (80%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 15
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ@JAXW15 2025 | NYJ 20, JAX 48 | JAX | W |
| JAX@NYJW16 2022 | JAX 19, NYJ 3 | JAX | W |
| JAX@NYJW16 2021 | JAX 21, NYJ 26 | NYJ | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 15 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNYJ vs JAX
Our model takes Jacksonville Jaguars at 67% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project JAX by 6.0. The market has JAX at +3.5.
New York Jets won, NYJ 32, JAX 25. Our model had favored Jacksonville Jaguars at 67% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Jacksonville Jaguars at +3.5, meaning the book expects Jacksonville Jaguars to win by 3.5 points.
In Week 15, the New York Jets were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Jacksonville Jaguars were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 41.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.2, 3.7 above the market.
Week 15 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Jacksonville Jaguars, NYJ 20, JAX 48 in Week 15 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, New York Jets: NYJ -0.037 against JAX -0.149.
