2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
NYJ @ JAX – Week 15 2024
NYJ
JAX
NYJ
AWAY
32@25
NYJ +7
FINAL · WEEK 15
2024 SEASON
JAX
HOME
TIER B
PICK: JAX
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: JAX 67%Projected margin: 4.3
JAX
PICK SIDE
+3.5
SPREAD
4.3
PROJ MARGIN
+165
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
JAX B-tier pick misses. NYJ takes it.
MISSED
Model picked JAX but NYJ won. Projected margin was 4.3 -- the model overestimated by 11.3 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 3.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | +3.5 | JAX market line | |
| MODEL ML | +165 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | +145 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
NYJ
road_favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)Road Favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)
JAX
divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)home_underdog 4-1 ATS (80%)Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Home Underdog 4-1 ATS (80%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
NYJ
A.Rodgers
QB
256.6SEASON PPR
G.Wilson
WR
251.9SEASON PPR
B.Hall
RB
240.9SEASON PPR
JAX
B.Thomas
WR
284.0SEASON PPR
T.Lawrence
QB
145.7SEASON PPR
T.Etienne
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 15
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ@JAXW15 2025 | NYJ 20, JAX 48 | JAX | W |
| JAX@NYJW16 2022 | JAX 19, NYJ 3 | JAX | W |
| JAX@NYJW16 2021 | JAX 21, NYJ 26 | NYJ | W |
WEEK 15 · OTHER GAMES