Falcons vs Raiders – Week 15 2024
ATL
LV
ATL
AWAY
15@9
ATL BY 6
FINAL · WEEK 15
2024 SEASON
Allegiant Stadium · Las Vegas, NV
LV
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Atlanta Falcons 15, Las Vegas Raiders 9.
Going in, our model had favored Atlanta Falcons at 65% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Falcons, 2 Raiders.
Model confidence: ATL 65%Our line: ATL -5.4
ODDS
SPREAD
ATL -6.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
ATL -5.4
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
ATL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
65%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 15
-0.027Net EPA / play-0.164
+0.034 (13)Offense EPA / play-0.143 (31)
+0.061 (27)Defense EPA / play+0.021 (19)
48.1% (5)Offense success %40.5% (26)
GAME NARRATIVE
ATL B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected ATL by 5.4. Actual: 6 points. The model was within 0.6 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 0.5 points, a bad-beat loss.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
ATL
No noteworthy trends
LV
divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 15
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 15 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSATL vs LV
Our model takes Atlanta Falcons at 65% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project ATL by 5.4. The market has ATL at -6.5.
Atlanta Falcons won, ATL 15, LV 9. Our model had favored Atlanta Falcons at 65% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Atlanta Falcons at -6.5, meaning the book expects Atlanta Falcons to win by 6.5 points.
In Week 15, the Atlanta Falcons were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Las Vegas Raiders were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 44.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 43.5, 1.0 below the market.
Week 15 of the 2024 season, MON 8:30 PM.
Atlanta Falcons, LV 6, ATL 43 in Week 12 of 2020.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Atlanta Falcons: ATL -0.027 against LV -0.164.
