ATL @ LV – Week 15 2024
ATL
LV
ATL
AWAY
15@9
ATL BY 6
FINAL · WEEK 15
2024 SEASON
Allegiant Stadium · Las Vegas, NV
LV
HOME
Model confidence: ATL 65%Our line: ATL -5.4
ATL
PICK SIDE
-6.5
MARKET SPREAD
-5.4
OUR LINE
-189
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 15
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2024 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.027Net EPA / play-0.164
+0.034Offense EPA / play-0.143
+0.061Defense EPA / play+0.021
48.1%Offense success %40.5%
46.5%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
ATL B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected ATL by 5.4. Actual: 6 points. The model was within 0.6 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 0.5 points, a bad-beat loss.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | ATL | LV |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -345 | +275 |
| Our fair price | -189 | +189 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD ATL -6.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.39
OUR NUMBER
65%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
74%
DIFFERENCE
-9%
Both figures are for ATL. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
ATL
No noteworthy trends
LV
divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
ATL
B.Robinson
RB
341.7 SEASON PPR
D.London
WR
280.8 SEASON PPR
D.Mooney
WR
193.2 SEASON PPR
LV
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Atlanta FalconsPASSING
K.Cousins3508 yd · 18 TD · 16 INT
RUSHING
B.Robinson1456 yd · 14 TD
T.Allgeier644 yd · 3 TD
R.McCloud79 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
D.London100 rec · 1271 yd · 9 TD
D.Mooney64 rec · 992 yd · 5 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 15
COMMON QUESTIONSATL vs LV
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Atlanta Falcons at 65% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project ATL by 5.4. The market has ATL at -6.5.
The model projects 43.5 combined points. The market total is 44.5.
Week 15 of the 2024 season, MON 8:30 PM.
Atlanta Falcons, LV 6, ATL 43 in Week 12 of 2020.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Atlanta Falcons: ATL -0.027 against LV -0.164.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the EdgeWEEK 15 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
