Packers vs Seahawks – Week 15 2024
GB
SEA
GB
AWAY
30@13
GB BY 17
FINAL · WEEK 15
2024 SEASON
Lumen Field · Seattle, WA
SEA
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Green Bay Packers 30, Seattle Seahawks 13.
Going in, our model had favored Green Bay Packers at 65% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Packers, 7 Seahawks.
Model confidence: GB 65%Our line: GB -5.2
ODDS
SPREAD
GB -3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
GB -5.2
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
GB · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
65%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 15
+0.146Net EPA / play-0.018
+0.079 (8)Offense EPA / play-0.030 (19)
-0.067 (4)Defense EPA / play-0.012 (11)
44.9% (14)Offense success %43.9% (16)
GAME NARRATIVE
GB B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked GB. Projected margin: 5.2. Actual: 17. Off by 11.8 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 14.0 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
GB
road_favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)divisional 0-5 ATS (0%)Road Favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 0-5 ATS (0%)
SEA
home_underdog 1-5 ATS (17%)Home Underdog 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
43°F
WIND
3 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 15
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 15 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSGB vs SEA
Our model takes Green Bay Packers at 65% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project GB by 5.2. The market has GB at -3.0.
Green Bay Packers won, GB 30, SEA 13. Our model had favored Green Bay Packers at 65% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Green Bay Packers at -3.0, meaning the book expects Green Bay Packers to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 15, the Green Bay Packers were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Seattle Seahawks were without 7 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 48.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.7, 2.3 below the market.
Week 15 of the 2024 season, SUN 8:20 PM.
Green Bay Packers, SEA 0, GB 17 in Week 10 of 2021.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Green Bay Packers: GB +0.146 against SEA -0.018.
