SEA @ GB – Week 10 2021
SEA
GB
SEA
AWAY
0@17
GB BY 17
FINAL · WEEK 10
2021 SEASON
Lambeau Field · Green Bay, WI
GB
HOME
Model confidence: GB 65%Our line: GB -5.0
GB
PICK SIDE
-3.0
MARKET SPREAD
-5.0
OUR LINE
-182
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 10
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2021 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.003Net EPA / play+0.127
+0.031Offense EPA / play+0.134
+0.028Defense EPA / play+0.006
43.2%Offense success %48.6%
46.6%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
GB A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked GB. Projected margin: 5.0. Actual: 17. Off by 12.0 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 6 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 14.0 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | SEA | GB |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +151 | -168 |
| Our fair price | +182 | -182 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD GB -3.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.65
OUR NUMBER
65%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
61%
DIFFERENCE
+3%
Both figures are for GB. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
SEA
No noteworthy trends
GB
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
35°F
WIND
11 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
SEA
DK Metcalf
WR
244.3 SEASON PPR
Russell Wilson
QB
242.8 SEASON PPR
Tyler Lockett
WR
241.4 SEASON PPR
GB
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Seattle SeahawksPASSING
Russell Wilson3113 yd · 25 TD · 6 INT
RUSHING
Rashaad Penny749 yd · 6 TD
Alex Collins411 yd · 2 TD
Chris Carson232 yd · 3 TD
RECEIVING
Tyler Lockett73 rec · 1175 yd · 8 TD
DK Metcalf75 rec · 967 yd · 12 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 10
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| GB@SEAW15 2024 | GB 30, SEA 13 | GB | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSSEA vs GB
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Green Bay Packers at 65% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project GB by 5.0. The market has GB at -3.0.
The model projects 43.8 combined points. The market total is 49.5.
Week 10 of the 2021 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Green Bay Packers, GB 30, SEA 13 in Week 15 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Green Bay Packers: SEA +0.003 against GB +0.127.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 10 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
