2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
BAL @ MIA – Week 10 2021
BAL
MIA
BAL
AWAY
10@22
MIA +12
FINAL · WEEK 10
2021 SEASON
MIA
HOME
TIER A+
PICK: BAL
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: BAL 67%Projected margin: -7.7
BAL
PICK SIDE
-8.5
SPREAD
-7.7
PROJ MARGIN
-340
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
BAL A+-tier pick misses. MIA takes it.
MISSED
Model picked BAL but MIA won. Projected margin was 7.7 -- the model overestimated by 19.7 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 20.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -8.5 | BAL market line | |
| MODEL ML | -340 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -390 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
BAL
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Road Favorite 0-5 ATS (0%)
MIA
Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
77°F
WIND
4 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
BAL
Mark Andrews
TE
301.1SEASON PPR
Lamar Jackson
QB
240.0SEASON PPR
Marquise Brown
WR
228.3SEASON PPR
MIA
Jaylen Waddle
WR
247.8SEASON PPR
Tua Tagovailoa
QB
180.9SEASON PPR
Myles Gaskin
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 10
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAL@MIAW9 2025 | BAL 28, MIA 6 | BAL | W |
| MIA@BALW17 2023 | MIA 19, BAL 56 | BAL | W |
| MIA@BALW2 2022 | MIA 42, BAL 38 | MIA | W |
WEEK 10 · OTHER GAMES