Ravens vs Dolphins – Week 10 2021
BAL
MIA
BAL
AWAY
10@22
MIA BY 12
FINAL · WEEK 10
2021 SEASON
Hard Rock Stadium · Miami Gardens, FL
MIA
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Baltimore Ravens 10, Miami Dolphins 22.
Going in, our model had favored Baltimore Ravens at 67% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 2 Ravens.
Model confidence: BAL 67%Our line: BAL -5.8
ODDS
SPREAD
BAL -8.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
BAL -5.8
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
BAL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
67%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 10
-0.065Net EPA / play-0.031
+0.005 (19)Offense EPA / play-0.059 (22)
+0.070 (27)Defense EPA / play-0.028 (10)
46.4% (10)Offense success %41.3% (25)
GAME NARRATIVE
BAL A+-tier pick misses. MIA takes it.
MISSED
Model picked BAL but MIA won. Projected margin was 5.8, the model overestimated by 17.8 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 20.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
BAL
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Road Favorite 0-5 ATS (0%)
MIA
Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
77°F
WIND
4 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 10
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAL@MIAW9 2025 | BAL 28, MIA 6 | BAL | W |
| MIA@BALW17 2023 | MIA 19, BAL 56 | BAL | W |
| MIA@BALW2 2022 | MIA 42, BAL 38 | MIA | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 10 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSBAL vs MIA
Our model takes Baltimore Ravens at 67% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project BAL by 5.8. The market has BAL at -8.5.
Miami Dolphins won, BAL 10, MIA 22. Our model had favored Baltimore Ravens at 67% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Baltimore Ravens at -8.5, meaning the book expects Baltimore Ravens to win by 8.5 points.
In Week 10, the Baltimore Ravens were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 46.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.8, 1.3 above the market.
Week 10 of the 2021 season, THU 8:20 PM.
Baltimore Ravens, BAL 28, MIA 6 in Week 9 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Miami Dolphins: BAL -0.065 against MIA -0.031.
