Bills vs Jets – Week 10 2021
BUF
NYJ
BUF
AWAY
45@17
BUF BY 28
FINAL · WEEK 10
2021 SEASON
MetLife Stadium · East Rutherford, NJ
NYJ
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Buffalo Bills 45, New York Jets 17.
Going in, our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 74% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Bills, 2 Jets.
Model confidence: BUF 74%Our line: BUF -8.6
ODDS
SPREAD
BUF -13.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
BUF -8.6
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
BUF · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
74%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 10
+0.242Net EPA / play-0.220
+0.101 (4)Offense EPA / play-0.092 (27)
-0.141 (1)Defense EPA / play+0.128 (32)
47.7% (5)Offense success %41.6% (23)
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF S-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BUF. Projected margin: 8.6. Actual: 28. Off by 19.4 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 15.0 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. S-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
BUF
Divisional 4-1 ATS (80%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Windy 2-3 ATS (40%)
NYJ
Home Underdog 3-5 ATS (38%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
47°F
WIND
4 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 10
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ@BUFW18 2025 | NYJ 8, BUF 35 | BUF | W |
| BUF@NYJW2 2025 | BUF 30, NYJ 10 | BUF | W |
| NYJ@BUFW17 2024 | NYJ 14, BUF 40 | BUF | W |
| BUF@NYJW6 2024 | BUF 23, NYJ 20 | BUF | W |
| NYJ@BUFW11 2023 | NYJ 6, BUF 32 | BUF | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 10 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSBUF vs NYJ
Our model takes Buffalo Bills at 74% win probability, a Tier S pick. The margin models project BUF by 8.6. The market has BUF at -13.0.
Buffalo Bills won, BUF 45, NYJ 17. Our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 74% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Buffalo Bills at -13.0, meaning the book expects Buffalo Bills to win by 13.0 points.
In Week 10, the Buffalo Bills were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the New York Jets were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 47.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.3, 0.7 below the market.
Week 10 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Buffalo Bills, NYJ 8, BUF 35 in Week 18 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Buffalo Bills: BUF +0.242 against NYJ -0.220.
