2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
BUF @ NYJ – Week 10 2021
BUF
NYJ
BUF
AWAY
45@17
BUF +28
FINAL · WEEK 10
2021 SEASON
NYJ
HOME
TIER S
PICK: BUF
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: BUF 74%Projected margin: -10.1
BUF
PICK SIDE
-13.0
SPREAD
-10.1
PROJ MARGIN
-649
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF S-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BUF. Projected margin: 10.1. Actual: 28. Off by 17.9 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 15.0 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. S-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -13.0 | BUF market line | |
| MODEL ML | -649 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -685 | Won · +$0.15 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
BUF
Divisional 4-1 ATS (80%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Windy 2-3 ATS (40%)
NYJ
Home Underdog 3-5 ATS (38%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
47°F
WIND
4 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
BUF
Josh Allen
QB
402.6SEASON PPR
Stefon Diggs
WR
285.5SEASON PPR
Devin Singletary
RB
197.8SEASON PPR
NYJ
Michael Carter
RB
154.4SEASON PPR
Zach Wilson
QB
151.9SEASON PPR
Elijah Moore
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 10
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ@BUFW18 2025 | NYJ 8, BUF 35 | BUF | W |
| BUF@NYJW2 2025 | BUF 30, NYJ 10 | BUF | W |
| NYJ@BUFW17 2024 | NYJ 14, BUF 40 | BUF | W |
| BUF@NYJW6 2024 | BUF 23, NYJ 20 | BUF | W |
| NYJ@BUFW11 2023 | NYJ 6, BUF 32 | BUF | W |
WEEK 10 · OTHER GAMES