Falcons vs Cowboys – Week 10 2021
ATL
DAL
ATL
AWAY
3@43
DAL BY 40
FINAL · WEEK 10
2021 SEASON
AT&T Stadium · Arlington, TX
DAL
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Atlanta Falcons 3, Dallas Cowboys 43.
Going in, our model had favored Dallas Cowboys at 61% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 4 Falcons, 1 Cowboys.
Model confidence: DAL 61%Our line: DAL -3.6
ODDS
SPREAD
DAL -8.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DAL -3.6
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
DAL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
61%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 10
-0.180Net EPA / play+0.187
-0.098 (28)Offense EPA / play+0.096 (5)
+0.082 (29)Defense EPA / play-0.091 (3)
40.4% (29)Offense success %47.0% (7)
GAME NARRATIVE
DAL B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked DAL. Projected margin: 3.6. Actual: 40. Off by 36.4 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 32.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
ATL
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
DAL
Divisional 6-0 ATS (100%)Road Favorite 5-0 ATS (100%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
DAL
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Atlanta FalconsPASSING
Matt Ryan3968 yd · 20 TD · 12 INT
RUSHING
Cordarrelle Patterson618 yd · 6 TD
Mike Davis503 yd · 3 TD
Qadree Ollison105 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
Kyle Pitts68 rec · 1026 yd · 1 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 10
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DAL@ATLW9 2024 | DAL 21, ATL 27 | ATL | W |
| ATL@DALW2 2020 | ATL 39, DAL 40 | DAL | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 10 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSATL vs DAL
Our model takes Dallas Cowboys at 61% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project DAL by 3.6. The market has DAL at -8.0.
Dallas Cowboys won, ATL 3, DAL 43. Our model had favored Dallas Cowboys at 61% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Dallas Cowboys at -8.0, meaning the book expects Dallas Cowboys to win by 8.0 points.
In Week 10, the Atlanta Falcons were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Dallas Cowboys were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 55.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 48.5, 6.5 below the market.
Week 10 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Atlanta Falcons, DAL 21, ATL 27 in Week 9 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Dallas Cowboys: ATL -0.180 against DAL +0.187.
