Browns vs Patriots – Week 10 2021
CLE
NE
CLE
AWAY
7@45
NE BY 38
FINAL · WEEK 10
2021 SEASON
Gillette Stadium · Foxborough, MA
NE
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Cleveland Browns 7, New England Patriots 45.
Going in, our model had favored New England Patriots at 52% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Browns, 1 Patriots.
Model confidence: NE 52%Our line: NE -0.6
ODDS
SPREAD
NE -2.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
NE -0.6
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
NE · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
52%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 10
+0.012Net EPA / play+0.135
+0.013 (18)Offense EPA / play+0.069 (11)
+0.001 (14)Defense EPA / play-0.066 (5)
43.9% (19)Offense success %48.4% (4)
GAME NARRATIVE
NE B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked NE. Projected margin: 0.6. Actual: 38. Off by 37.4 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 35.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CLE
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
NE
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
48°F
WIND
6 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
NE
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 10
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CLE@NEW8 2025 | CLE 13, NE 32 | NE | W |
| NE@CLEW6 2022 | NE 38, CLE 15 | NE | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 10 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCLE vs NE
Our model takes New England Patriots at 52% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project NE by 0.6. The market has NE at -2.5.
New England Patriots won, CLE 7, NE 45. Our model had favored New England Patriots at 52% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has New England Patriots at -2.5, meaning the book expects New England Patriots to win by 2.5 points.
In Week 10, the Cleveland Browns were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the New England Patriots were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 45.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 49.0, 3.5 above the market.
Week 10 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
New England Patriots, CLE 13, NE 32 in Week 8 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, New England Patriots: CLE +0.012 against NE +0.135.
