2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
JAX @ IND – Week 10 2021
JAX
IND
JAX
AWAY
17@23
IND +6
FINAL · WEEK 10
2021 SEASON
IND
HOME
TIER A+
PICK: IND
PICK WONATS ✗
Model confidence: IND 68%Projected margin: 8.0
IND
PICK SIDE
-10.5
SPREAD
8.0
PROJ MARGIN
-453
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
IND A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected IND by 8.0. Actual: 6 points. The model was within 2.0 points of the real margin.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 4.5 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -10.5 | IND market line | |
| MODEL ML | -453 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -434 | Won · +$0.22 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
JAX
Home Underdog 3-5 ATS (38%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
IND
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
JAX
Trevor Lawrence
QB
199.0SEASON PPR
Marvin Jones
WR
180.2SEASON PPR
James Robinson
RB
173.9SEASON PPR
IND
Jonathan Taylor
RB
373.1SEASON PPR
Carson Wentz
QB
258.0SEASON PPR
Michael Pittman
INJURY REPORTWEEK 10
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| JAX@INDW17 2025 | JAX 23, IND 17 | JAX | W |
| IND@JAXW14 2025 | IND 19, JAX 36 | JAX | W |
| JAX@INDW18 2024 | JAX 23, IND 26 | IND | W |
| IND@JAXW5 2024 | IND 34, JAX 37 | IND | L |
| IND@JAXW6 2023 | IND 20, JAX 37 | JAX | W |
WEEK 10 · OTHER GAMES