Jaguars vs Colts – Week 10 2021
JAX
IND
JAX
AWAY
17@23
IND BY 6
FINAL · WEEK 10
2021 SEASON
Lucas Oil Stadium · Indianapolis, IN
IND
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Jacksonville Jaguars 17, Indianapolis Colts 23.
Going in, our model had favored Indianapolis Colts at 68% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Colts.
Model confidence: IND 68%Our line: IND -6.4
ODDS
SPREAD
IND -10.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
IND -6.4
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
IND · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
68%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 10
-0.206Net EPA / play+0.045
-0.088 (26)Offense EPA / play+0.051 (13)
+0.118 (31)Defense EPA / play+0.006 (15)
44.0% (18)Offense success %44.3% (16)
GAME NARRATIVE
IND A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected IND by 6.4. Actual: 6 points. The model was within 0.4 points of the real margin.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 4.5 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
JAX
Home Underdog 3-5 ATS (38%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
IND
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
IND
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 10
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| JAX@INDW17 2025 | JAX 23, IND 17 | JAX | W |
| IND@JAXW14 2025 | IND 19, JAX 36 | JAX | W |
| JAX@INDW18 2024 | JAX 23, IND 26 | IND | W |
| IND@JAXW5 2024 | IND 34, JAX 37 | IND | L |
| IND@JAXW6 2023 | IND 20, JAX 37 | JAX | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 10 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSJAX vs IND
Our model takes Indianapolis Colts at 68% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project IND by 6.4. The market has IND at -10.5.
Indianapolis Colts won, JAX 17, IND 23. Our model had favored Indianapolis Colts at 68% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Indianapolis Colts at -10.5, meaning the book expects Indianapolis Colts to win by 10.5 points.
In Week 10, the Indianapolis Colts were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 47.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.1, 0.4 below the market.
Week 10 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Jacksonville Jaguars, JAX 23, IND 17 in Week 17 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Indianapolis Colts: JAX -0.206 against IND +0.045.
