Colts vs Jaguars – Week 8 2026
IND
JAX
IND
AWAY
@
SUN 1:00 PM
WEEK 8 · 2026 SEASON
EverBank Stadium · Jacksonville, FL
JAX
HOME
OUR PICK
THE SHORT ANSWER
Our model favors the Jaguars over the Colts at 78% win probability. No betting line has been posted for this game yet.
Model confidence: JAX 78%Our line: JAX -10.2
80% range around our line: IND by 7 to JAX by 28. Four games in five land inside it.
Betting the JAX game? Pro shows whether we flag it as a bet, at what price, and your stake at your unit size →
ODDS
SPREAD
JAX —
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
JAX -10.2
OUR LINE
MONEYLINE
JAX · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
78%
JAX · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
66%
DIFFERENCE
+12%
| SPORTSBOOK | IND | JAX | JAX WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings |
PREGAME SNAPSHOTWEEK 8 · WHAT MATTERS AT KICKOFF
TEAM COMPARISON2026 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES
-0.150Net EPA / play+0.239
-0.051 (22)Offense EPA / play+0.151 (6)
+0.099 (27)Defense EPA / play-0.088 (3)
42.2% (19)Offense success %46.9% (9)
PROJECTED MARGINHOW THE FINAL SCORE COULD LAND
GAME NARRATIVE
Early forecast: JAX at 78%, backed by epa edge.
EPA EDGE
JAX generates 0.151 EPA/play on offense. IND's defense allows 0.099. That's a top-tier efficiency gap.
H2H EDGE
JAX has won 4 of the last 5 meetings against IND.
DRIVE EFF
JAX scores 2.1 points per drive vs 1.4 for IND. That's a substantial offensive rhythm gap.
BLOWOUT PROJ
Model projects a 10.2-point margin.
Multiple signals align in JAX's favor. One of the cleaner setups on the slate.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2026 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2026 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| JAX@INDW17 2025 | JAX 23, IND 17 | JAX | W |
| IND@JAXW14 2025 | IND 19, JAX 36 | JAX | W |
| JAX@INDW18 2024 | JAX 23, IND 26 | IND | W |
| IND@JAXW5 2024 | IND 34, JAX 37 | IND | L |
| IND@JAXW6 2023 | IND 20, JAX 37 | JAX | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 8 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSIND vs JAX
Our model takes Jacksonville Jaguars at 78% win probability. The margin models project JAX by 10.2. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so this is an early forecast that regenerates every Wednesday.
Our model favors Jacksonville Jaguars at 78% win probability.
No betting line has been posted for this game yet.
Week 8 of the 2026 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Jacksonville Jaguars, JAX 23, IND 17 in Week 17 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2026 season, Jacksonville Jaguars: IND -0.150 against JAX +0.239.
