BAL @ BUF – Week 8 2026
BAL
BUF
BAL
AWAY
@
SUN 1:00 PM
WEEK 8 · 2026 SEASON
BUF
HOME
OUR PICK
Model confidence: BUF 72%Projected margin: -6.0
BUF
PICK SIDE
—
SPREAD
-6.0
PROJ MARGIN
—
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.010Net EPA / play+0.152
+0.034Offense EPA / play+0.136
+0.024Defense EPA / play-0.016
44.6%Offense success %48.5%
44.1%Defense success %
PROJECTED MARGINEVERY OUTCOME THE MODEL CONSIDERS LIKELY
GAME NARRATIVE
Early forecast: BUF at 72%, backed by epa edge.
EPA EDGE
BUF generates 0.136 EPA/play on offense. BAL's defense allows 0.024. That's a top-tier efficiency gap.
AGGRESSIVE 4TH
BUF goes for it on 4th down 32% of the time -- among the most aggressive in the NFL.
DRIVE EFF
BUF scores 2.5 points per drive vs 1.9 for BAL. That's a substantial offensive rhythm gap.
Net-positive signal profile for BUF. This forecast updates every Wednesday as the season plays out.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | — | BUF market line | |
| MONEYLINE | Moneyline not recorded for this game | ||
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
BAL
D.Henry
RB
279.5SEASON PPR
Z.Flowers
WR
243.3SEASON PPR
L.Jackson
QB
214.9SEASON PPR
BUF
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Baltimore RavensPASSING
L.Jackson2549 yd · 21 TD · 7 INT
RUSHING
D.Henry1595 yd · 16 TD
L.Jackson349 yd · 2 TD
K.Mitchell341 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
Z.Flowers86 rec · 1211 yd · 5 TD
M.Andrews48 rec · 422 yd · 5 TD
D.Hopkins22 rec · 330 yd · 2 TD
I.Likely27 rec · 307 yd · 1 TD
VS
2,549PASSyds3,668
2,285RUSHyds
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAL@BUFW1 2025 | BAL 40, BUF 41 | BAL | L |
| BUF@BALW4 2024 | BUF 10, BAL 35 | BUF | L |
| BUF@BALW4 2022 | BUF 23, BAL 20 | BUF | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSBAL vs BUF
Who is favored in Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills?
Our model takes Buffalo Bills at 72% win probability. The margin models project BUF by 6.0. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so this is an early forecast that regenerates every Wednesday.
When do the Baltimore Ravens and Buffalo Bills play?
Week 8 of the 2026 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Who won the last Baltimore Ravens vs Buffalo Bills game?
Buffalo Bills, 40-41 in Week 1 of 2025.
Which team has been better, the Baltimore Ravens or the Buffalo Bills?
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Buffalo Bills: BAL +0.010 against BUF +0.152.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake — plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
