2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
BUF @ BAL – Week 4 2024
BUF
BAL
BUF
AWAY
10@35
BAL +25
FINAL · WEEK 4
2024 SEASON
BAL
HOME
TIER B
PICK: BUF
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: BUF 62%Projected margin: -1.8
BUF
PICK SIDE
+2.5
SPREAD
-1.8
PROJ MARGIN
+143
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF B-tier pick misses. BAL takes it.
MISSED
Model picked BUF but BAL won. Projected margin was 1.8 -- the model overestimated by 26.8 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 22.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | +2.5 | BUF market line | |
| MODEL ML | +143 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | +114 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
BUF
road_favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
BAL
road_favorite 6-2 ATS (75%)Road Favorite 6-2 ATS (75%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
68°F
WIND
8 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
BUF
J.Allen
QB
372.3SEASON PPR
J.Cook
RB
266.7SEASON PPR
K.Shakir
WR
182.5SEASON PPR
BAL
L.Jackson
QB
430.4SEASON PPR
D.Henry
RB
336.4SEASON PPR
Z.Flowers
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAL@BUFW1 2025 | BAL 40, BUF 41 | BAL | L |
| BUF@BALW4 2022 | BUF 23, BAL 20 | BUF | W |
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES