Bills vs Ravens – Week 4 2024
BUF
BAL
BUF
AWAY
10@35
BAL BY 25
FINAL · WEEK 4
2024 SEASON
M&T Bank Stadium · Baltimore, MD
BAL
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Buffalo Bills 10, Baltimore Ravens 35.
Going in, our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 62% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 3 Bills, 3 Ravens.
Model confidence: BUF 62%Our line: BUF -4.3
ODDS
SPREAD
BUF +2.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
BUF -4.3
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
BUF · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
62%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 4
+0.197Net EPA / play+0.269
+0.189 (2)Offense EPA / play+0.218 (1)
-0.009 (12)Defense EPA / play-0.051 (8)
47.5% (7)Offense success %50.0% (2)
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF B-tier pick misses. BAL takes it.
MISSED
Model picked BUF but BAL won. Projected margin was 4.3, the model overestimated by 29.3 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 22.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
BUF
road_favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
BAL
road_favorite 6-2 ATS (75%)Road Favorite 6-2 ATS (75%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
68°F
WIND
8 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAL@BUFW1 2025 | BAL 40, BUF 41 | BAL | L |
| BUF@BALW4 2022 | BUF 23, BAL 20 | BUF | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSBUF vs BAL
Our model takes Buffalo Bills at 62% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project BUF by 4.3. The market has BUF at +2.5.
Baltimore Ravens won, BUF 10, BAL 35. Our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 62% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Buffalo Bills at +2.5, meaning the book expects Buffalo Bills to win by 2.5 points.
In Week 4, the Buffalo Bills were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Baltimore Ravens were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 46.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.7, 0.8 below the market.
Week 4 of the 2024 season, SUN 8:20 PM.
Buffalo Bills, BAL 40, BUF 41 in Week 1 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Baltimore Ravens: BUF +0.197 against BAL +0.269.
