2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
SEA @ DET – Week 4 2024
SEA
DET
SEA
AWAY
29@42
DET +13
FINAL · WEEK 4
2024 SEASON
DET
HOME
TIER B
PICK: DET
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: DET 65%Projected margin: 3.5
DET
PICK SIDE
-3.5
SPREAD
3.5
PROJ MARGIN
-165
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
DET B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked DET. Projected margin: 3.5. Actual: 13. Off by 9.5 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 9.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.5 | DET market line | |
| MODEL ML | -165 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -185 | Won · +$0.61 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
SEA
home_underdog 1-5 ATS (17%)Home Underdog 1-5 ATS (17%)
DET
road_favorite 6-1 ATS (86%)divisional 4-1 ATS (80%)Road Favorite 6-1 ATS (86%)Divisional 4-1 ATS (80%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
SEA
G.Smith
QB
266.0SEASON PPR
J.Smith-Njigba
WR
253.0SEASON PPR
D.Metcalf
WR
191.2SEASON PPR
DET
J.Gibbs
RB
354.9SEASON PPR
J.Goff
QB
324.5SEASON PPR
A.St. Brown
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| SEA@DETW2 2023 | SEA 37, DET 31 | DET | L |
| SEA@DETW4 2022 | SEA 48, DET 45 | SEA | W |
| DET@SEAW17 2021 | DET 29, SEA 51 | SEA | W |
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES