Vikings vs Packers – Week 4 2024
MIN
GB
MIN
AWAY
31@29
MIN BY 2
FINAL · WEEK 4
2024 SEASON
Lambeau Field · Green Bay, WI
GB
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Minnesota Vikings 31, Green Bay Packers 29.
Going in, our model had favored Green Bay Packers at 65% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 1 Vikings, 2 Packers.
Model confidence: GB 65%Our line: GB -5.3
ODDS
SPREAD
GB -2.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
GB -5.3
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
GB · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
65%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 4
+0.103Net EPA / play+0.146
+0.016 (15)Offense EPA / play+0.079 (8)
-0.086 (3)Defense EPA / play-0.067 (4)
45.6% (12)Offense success %44.9% (14)
GAME NARRATIVE
GB B-tier pick misses. MIN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked GB but MIN won. Projected margin was 5.3, the model overestimated by 7.3 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 4.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
MIN
divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)road_favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
GB
road_favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)divisional 0-5 ATS (0%)Road Favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 0-5 ATS (0%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
71°F
WIND
15 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| GB@MINW1 2026 | GB 22, MIN 39 | MIN | W |
| GB@MINW18 2025 | GB 3, MIN 16 | GB | L |
| MIN@GBW12 2025 | MIN 6, GB 23 | GB | W |
| GB@MINW17 2024 | GB 25, MIN 27 | MIN | W |
| GB@MINW17 2023 | GB 33, MIN 10 | MIN | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSMIN vs GB
Our model takes Green Bay Packers at 65% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project GB by 5.3. The market has GB at -2.5.
Minnesota Vikings won, MIN 31, GB 29. Our model had favored Green Bay Packers at 65% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Green Bay Packers at -2.5, meaning the book expects Green Bay Packers to win by 2.5 points.
In Week 4, the Minnesota Vikings were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Green Bay Packers were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 44.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 44.2, 0.2 above the market.
Week 4 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Minnesota Vikings, GB 22, MIN 39 in Week 1 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Green Bay Packers: MIN +0.103 against GB +0.146.
