2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
MIN @ GB – Week 4 2024
MIN
GB
MIN
AWAY
31@29
MIN +2
FINAL · WEEK 4
2024 SEASON
GB
HOME
TIER B
PICK: GB
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: GB 65%Projected margin: 3.7
GB
PICK SIDE
-2.5
SPREAD
3.7
PROJ MARGIN
-143
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
GB B-tier pick misses. MIN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked GB but MIN won. Projected margin was 3.7 -- the model overestimated by 5.7 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 4.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -2.5 | GB market line | |
| MODEL ML | -143 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -135 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
MIN
divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)road_favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
GB
road_favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)divisional 0-5 ATS (0%)Road Favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 0-5 ATS (0%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
71°F
WIND
15 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
MIN
J.Jefferson
WR
317.5SEASON PPR
S.Darnold
QB
308.0SEASON PPR
A.Jones
RB
241.6SEASON PPR
GB
J.Jacobs
RB
293.1SEASON PPR
J.Love
QB
233.9SEASON PPR
J.Reed
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| GB@MINW18 2025 | GB 3, MIN 16 | GB | L |
| MIN@GBW12 2025 | MIN 6, GB 23 | GB | W |
| GB@MINW17 2024 | GB 25, MIN 27 | MIN | W |
| GB@MINW17 2023 | GB 33, MIN 10 | MIN | L |
| MIN@GBW8 2023 | MIN 24, GB 10 | MIN | W |
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES