2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
WAS @ ARI – Week 4 2024
WAS
ARI
WAS
AWAY
42@14
WAS +28
FINAL · WEEK 4
2024 SEASON
ARI
HOME
TIER B
PICK: ARI
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: ARI 62%Projected margin: 2.2
ARI
PICK SIDE
-3.5
SPREAD
2.2
PROJ MARGIN
-165
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
ARI B-tier pick misses. WAS takes it.
MISSED
Model picked ARI but WAS won. Projected margin was 2.2 -- the model overestimated by 30.2 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 31.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.5 | ARI market line | |
| MODEL ML | -165 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -180 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
WAS
No noteworthy trends
ARI
divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
WAS
J.Daniels
QB
355.8SEASON PPR
T.McLaurin
WR
267.8SEASON PPR
Z.Ertz
TE
177.4SEASON PPR
ARI
K.Murray
QB
297.2SEASON PPR
J.Conner
RB
253.8SEASON PPR
T.McBride
TE
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARI@WASW1 2023 | ARI 16, WAS 20 | WAS | W |
| WAS@ARIW2 2020 | WAS 15, ARI 30 | ARI | W |
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES