Commanders vs Cardinals – Week 2 2020
WAS
ARI
WAS
AWAY
15@30
ARI BY 15
FINAL · WEEK 2
2020 SEASON
State Farm Stadium · Glendale, AZ
ARI
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Washington Commanders 15, Arizona Cardinals 30.
Going in, our model had favored Arizona Cardinals at 53% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Commanders, 2 Cardinals.
Model confidence: ARI 53%Our line: ARI -0.9
ODDS
SPREAD
ARI -7.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
ARI -0.9
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
ARI · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
53%
ARI · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
74%
DIFFERENCE
-21%
| SOURCE | WAS | ARI | ARI WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +268 | -313 | 74.3% |
WIN % is each book’s odds as a win chance, with the book’s cut taken out. The card above is their average.
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 2
+0.023Net EPA / play+0.031
-0.067 (29)Offense EPA / play+0.038 (14)
-0.091 (3)Defense EPA / play+0.007 (11)
41.2% (29)Offense success %45.4% (18)
GAME NARRATIVE
ARI C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked ARI. Projected margin: 0.9. Actual: 15. Off by 14.1 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 7.5 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
WAS
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 4-2 ATS (67%)
ARI
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
WAS
Terry McLaurin
WR
223.8 SEASON PPR
Antonio Gibson
RB
202.2 SEASON PPR
J.D. McKissic
RB
191.4 SEASON PPR
ARI
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Washington CommandersPASSING
Alex Smith1582 yd · 6 TD · 8 INT
RUSHING
Antonio Gibson795 yd · 11 TD
J.D. McKissic365 yd · 1 TD
Peyton Barber258 yd · 4 TD
RECEIVING
Terry McLaurin87 rec · 1118 yd · 4 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| WAS@ARIW4 2024 | WAS 42, ARI 14 | ARI | L |
| ARI@WASW1 2023 | ARI 16, WAS 20 | WAS | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSWAS vs ARI
Our model takes Arizona Cardinals at 53% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project ARI by 0.9. The market has ARI at -7.5.
Arizona Cardinals won, WAS 15, ARI 30. Our model had favored Arizona Cardinals at 53% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Arizona Cardinals at -7.5, meaning the book expects Arizona Cardinals to win by 7.5 points.
In Week 2, the Washington Commanders were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Arizona Cardinals were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Week 2 of the 2020 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Washington Commanders, WAS 42, ARI 14 in Week 4 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Arizona Cardinals: WAS +0.023 against ARI +0.031.
