Vikings vs Colts – Week 2 2020
MIN
IND
MIN
AWAY
11@28
IND BY 17
FINAL · WEEK 2
2020 SEASON
Lucas Oil Stadium · Indianapolis, IN
IND
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Minnesota Vikings 11, Indianapolis Colts 28.
Going in, our model had favored Minnesota Vikings at 57% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 1 Vikings, 1 Colts.
Model confidence: MIN 57%Our line: MIN -2.4
ODDS
SPREAD
MIN +3.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
MIN -2.4
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
MIN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
57%
MIN · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
37%
DIFFERENCE
+20%
| SOURCE | MIN | IND | MIN WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +158 | -176 | 37.5% |
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 2
-0.003Net EPA / play+0.109
+0.095 (8)Offense EPA / play+0.079 (12)
+0.098 (27)Defense EPA / play-0.030 (9)
49.2% (5)Offense success %46.6% (10)
GAME NARRATIVE
MIN B-tier pick misses. IND takes it.
MISSED
Model picked MIN but IND won. Projected margin was 2.4, the model overestimated by 19.4 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 13.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
MIN
No noteworthy trends
IND
Road Favorite 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
IND
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| IND@MINW9 2024 | IND 13, MIN 21 | IND | L |
| IND@MINW15 2022 | IND 36, MIN 39 | MIN | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSMIN vs IND
Our model takes Minnesota Vikings at 57% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project MIN by 2.4. The market has MIN at +3.5.
Indianapolis Colts won, MIN 11, IND 28. Our model had favored Minnesota Vikings at 57% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Minnesota Vikings at +3.5, meaning the book expects Minnesota Vikings to win by 3.5 points.
In Week 2, the Minnesota Vikings were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Indianapolis Colts were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Week 2 of the 2020 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Minnesota Vikings, IND 13, MIN 21 in Week 9 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Indianapolis Colts: MIN -0.003 against IND +0.109.
