MIN @ IND – Week 2 2020
MIN
IND
MIN
AWAY
11@28
IND BY 17
FINAL · WEEK 2
2020 SEASON
Lucas Oil Stadium · Indianapolis, IN
IND
HOME
Model confidence: MIN 57%Our line: MIN -2.4
MIN
PICK SIDE
+3.5
MARKET SPREAD
-2.4
OUR LINE
-133
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 2
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2020 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.003Net EPA / play+0.109
+0.095Offense EPA / play+0.079
+0.098Defense EPA / play-0.030
49.2%Offense success %46.6%
50.0%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
MIN B-tier pick misses. IND takes it.
MISSED
Model picked MIN but IND won. Projected margin was 2.4, the model overestimated by 19.4 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 13.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | MIN | IND |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +158 | -176 |
| Our fair price | -133 | +133 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD MIN +3.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
57%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
38%
DIFFERENCE
+19%
Both figures are for MIN. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
MIN
No noteworthy trends
IND
Road Favorite 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
MIN
Dalvin Cook
RB
337.8 SEASON PPR
Kirk Cousins
QB
306.2 SEASON PPR
Justin Jefferson
WR
274.2 SEASON PPR
IND
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Minnesota VikingsPASSING
Kirk Cousins4265 yd · 35 TD · 13 INT
RUSHING
Dalvin Cook1557 yd · 16 TD
Alexander Mattison434 yd · 2 TD
Kirk Cousins156 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
Justin Jefferson88 rec · 1400 yd · 7 TD
Adam Thielen74 rec · 925 yd · 14 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| IND@MINW9 2024 | IND 13, MIN 21 | IND | L |
| IND@MINW15 2022 | IND 36, MIN 39 | MIN | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSMIN vs IND
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Minnesota Vikings at 57% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project MIN by 2.4. The market has MIN at +3.5.
Week 2 of the 2020 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Minnesota Vikings, IND 13, MIN 21 in Week 9 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Indianapolis Colts: MIN -0.003 against IND +0.109.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the EdgeWEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
