2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
BUF @ MIA – Week 2 2020
BUF
MIA
BUF
AWAY
31@28
BUF +3
FINAL · WEEK 2
2020 SEASON
MIA
HOME
TIER B
PICK: BUF
PICK WONATS ✗
Model confidence: BUF 59%Projected margin: -5.7
BUF
PICK SIDE
-5.5
SPREAD
-5.7
PROJ MARGIN
-221
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected BUF by 5.7. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 2.7 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 9 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 2.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -5.5 | BUF market line | |
| MODEL ML | -221 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | — | Won · +$0.45 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
BUF
No noteworthy trends
MIA
Home Underdog 4-1 ATS (80%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
90°F
WIND
5 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
BUF
Josh Allen
QB
396.1SEASON PPR
Stefon Diggs
WR
328.6SEASON PPR
Cole Beasley
WR
207.5SEASON PPR
MIA
DeVante Parker
WR
166.3SEASON PPR
Myles Gaskin
RB
164.2SEASON PPR
Mike Gesicki
TE
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUF@MIAW10 2025 | BUF 13, MIA 30 | BUF | L |
| MIA@BUFW3 2025 | MIA 21, BUF 31 | BUF | W |
| MIA@BUFW9 2024 | MIA 27, BUF 30 | BUF | W |
| BUF@MIAW2 2024 | BUF 31, MIA 10 | BUF | W |
| BUF@MIAW18 2023 | BUF 21, MIA 14 | BUF | W |
WEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES