BUF @ MIA – Week 2 2020
BUF
MIA
BUF
AWAY
31@28
BUF BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 2
2020 SEASON
Hard Rock Stadium · Miami Gardens, FL
MIA
HOME
Model confidence: BUF 59%Our line: BUF -3.1
BUF
PICK SIDE
-5.5
MARKET SPREAD
-3.1
OUR LINE
-145
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 2
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2020 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.147Net EPA / play+0.048
+0.164Offense EPA / play+0.007
+0.017Defense EPA / play-0.041
50.2%Offense success %46.0%
47.4%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected BUF by 3.1. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 0.1 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 9 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 2.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | BUF | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -244 | +214 |
| Our fair price | -145 | +145 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD BUF -5.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.45
OUR NUMBER
59%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
69%
DIFFERENCE
-10%
Both figures are for BUF. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
BUF
No noteworthy trends
MIA
Home Underdog 4-1 ATS (80%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
90°F
WIND
5 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
BUF
Josh Allen
QB
396.1 SEASON PPR
Stefon Diggs
WR
328.6 SEASON PPR
Cole Beasley
WR
207.5 SEASON PPR
MIA
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Buffalo BillsPASSING
Josh Allen4544 yd · 37 TD · 10 INT
RUSHING
Devin Singletary687 yd · 2 TD
Zack Moss481 yd · 4 TD
Josh Allen421 yd · 8 TD
RECEIVING
Stefon Diggs127 rec · 1535 yd · 8 TD
Cole Beasley82 rec · 967 yd · 4 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUF@MIAW10 2025 | BUF 13, MIA 30 | BUF | L |
| MIA@BUFW3 2025 | MIA 21, BUF 31 | BUF | W |
| MIA@BUFW9 2024 | MIA 27, BUF 30 | BUF | W |
| BUF@MIAW2 2024 | BUF 31, MIA 10 | BUF | W |
| BUF@MIAW18 2023 | BUF 21, MIA 14 | BUF | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSBUF vs MIA
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Buffalo Bills at 59% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project BUF by 3.1. The market has BUF at -5.5.
Week 2 of the 2020 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Miami Dolphins, BUF 13, MIA 30 in Week 10 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Buffalo Bills: BUF +0.147 against MIA +0.048.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
