2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
CAR @ TB – Week 2 2020
CAR
TB
CAR
AWAY
17@31
TB +14
FINAL · WEEK 2
2020 SEASON
TB
HOME
TIER B
PICK: TB
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: TB 60%Projected margin: 4.7
TB
PICK SIDE
-7.5
SPREAD
4.7
PROJ MARGIN
-294
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
TB B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked TB. Projected margin: 4.7. Actual: 14. Off by 9.3 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 6.5 points.
HIGH WIND
17 MPH winds at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -7.5 | TB market line | |
| MODEL ML | -294 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | — | Won · +$0.34 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
CAR
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
TB
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
85°F
WIND
17 MPH
WINDY
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
CAR
Teddy Bridgewater
QB
241.2SEASON PPR
Robbie Chosen
WR
224.1SEASON PPR
Curtis Samuel
WR
212.1SEASON PPR
TB
Tom Brady
QB
337.9SEASON PPR
Mike Evans
WR
248.6SEASON PPR
Chris Godwin Jr.
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAR@TBW18 2025 | CAR 14, TB 16 | TB | W |
| TB@CARW16 2025 | TB 20, CAR 23 | TB | L |
| CAR@TBW17 2024 | CAR 14, TB 48 | TB | W |
| TB@CARW13 2024 | TB 26, CAR 23 | TB | W |
| TB@CARW18 2023 | TB 9, CAR 0 | TB | W |
WEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES