Panthers vs Buccaneers – Week 2 2020
CAR
TB
CAR
AWAY
17@31
TB BY 14
FINAL · WEEK 2
2020 SEASON
Raymond James Stadium · Tampa, FL
TB
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Carolina Panthers 17, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31.
Going in, our model had favored Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 60% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Panthers, 2 Buccaneers.
Model confidence: TB 60%Our line: TB -3.2
ODDS
SPREAD
TB -7.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
TB -3.2
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
TB · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
60%
TB · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
76%
DIFFERENCE
-16%
| SOURCE | CAR | TB | TB WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +290 | -342 | 75.9% |
WIN % is each book’s odds as a win chance, with the book’s cut taken out. The card above is their average.
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 2
-0.073Net EPA / play+0.170
+0.004 (20)Offense EPA / play+0.119 (6)
+0.077 (24)Defense EPA / play-0.051 (6)
45.0% (19)Offense success %45.9% (15)
GAME NARRATIVE
TB B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked TB. Projected margin: 3.2. Actual: 14. Off by 10.8 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 6.5 points.
HIGH WIND
17 MPH winds at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CAR
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
TB
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
85°F
WIND
17 MPH
WINDY
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
CAR
Teddy Bridgewater
QB
241.2 SEASON PPR
Robbie Chosen
WR
224.1 SEASON PPR
Curtis Samuel
WR
212.1 SEASON PPR
TB
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Carolina PanthersPASSING
Teddy Bridgewater3733 yd · 15 TD · 11 INT
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAR@TBW18 2025 | CAR 14, TB 16 | TB | W |
| TB@CARW16 2025 | TB 20, CAR 23 | TB | L |
| CAR@TBW17 2024 | CAR 14, TB 48 | TB | W |
| TB@CARW13 2024 | TB 26, CAR 23 | TB | W |
| TB@CARW18 2023 | TB 9, CAR 0 | TB | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCAR vs TB
Our model takes Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 60% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project TB by 3.2. The market has TB at -7.5.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers won, CAR 17, TB 31. Our model had favored Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 60% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Tampa Bay Buccaneers at -7.5, meaning the book expects Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win by 7.5 points.
In Week 2, the Carolina Panthers were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Week 2 of the 2020 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers, CAR 14, TB 16 in Week 18 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: CAR -0.073 against TB +0.170.
