Patriots vs Seahawks – Week 2 2020
NE
SEA
NE
AWAY
30@35
SEA BY 5
FINAL · WEEK 2
2020 SEASON
Lumen Field · Seattle, WA
SEA
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New England Patriots 30, Seattle Seahawks 35.
Going in, our model had favored New England Patriots at 55% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 1 Patriots, 2 Seahawks.
Model confidence: NE 55%Our line: NE -1.6
ODDS
SPREAD
NE +4.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
NE -1.6
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
NE · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
55%
NE · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
35%
DIFFERENCE
+20%
| SOURCE | NE | SEA | NE WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +177 | -199 | 34.8% |
WIN % is each book’s odds as a win chance, with the book’s cut taken out. The card above is their average.
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 2
-0.076Net EPA / play+0.047
-0.004 (21)Offense EPA / play+0.087 (11)
+0.071 (22)Defense EPA / play+0.040 (17)
46.1% (12)Offense success %48.2% (6)
GAME NARRATIVE
NE B-tier pick misses. SEA takes it.
MISSED
Model picked NE but SEA won. Projected margin was 1.6, the model overestimated by 6.6 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 8 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 1.0 point, a bad-beat loss.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NE
No noteworthy trends
SEA
Road Favorite 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
70°F
WIND
5 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
SEA
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New England PatriotsPASSING
Cam Newton2657 yd · 8 TD · 10 INT
RUSHING
Damien Harris691 yd · 2 TD
Cam Newton592 yd · 12 TD
Sony Michel449 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
Jakobi Meyers59 rec · 729 yd · 0 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NE@SEAW1 2026 | NE 10, SEA 13 | SEA | W |
| SEA@NEW2 2024 | SEA 23, NE 20 | SEA | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNE vs SEA
Our model takes New England Patriots at 55% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project NE by 1.6. The market has NE at +4.0.
Seattle Seahawks won, NE 30, SEA 35. Our model had favored New England Patriots at 55% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has New England Patriots at +4.0, meaning the book expects New England Patriots to win by 4.0 points.
In Week 2, the New England Patriots were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Seattle Seahawks were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Week 2 of the 2020 season, SUN 8:20 PM.
Seattle Seahawks, NE 10, SEA 13 in Week 1 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Seattle Seahawks: NE -0.076 against SEA +0.047.
