Seahawks vs Patriots – Week 2 2024
SEA
NE
SEA
AWAY
23@20
SEA BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 2
2024 SEASON
Gillette Stadium · Foxborough, MA
NE
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Seattle Seahawks 23, New England Patriots 20.
Going in, our model had favored Seattle Seahawks at 64% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 4 Seahawks, 1 Patriots.
Model confidence: SEA 64%Our line: SEA -4.7
ODDS
SPREAD
SEA -3.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
SEA -4.7
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
SEA · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
64%
SEA · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
61%
DIFFERENCE
+3%
| SOURCE | SEA | NE | SEA WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -170 | +142 | 60.8% |
WIN % is each book’s odds as a win chance, with the book’s cut taken out. The card above is their average.
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 2
-0.018Net EPA / play-0.153
-0.030 (19)Offense EPA / play-0.083 (27)
-0.012 (11)Defense EPA / play+0.070 (29)
43.9% (16)Offense success %42.4% (19)
GAME NARRATIVE
SEA B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected SEA by 4.7. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 1.7 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 10 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 0.5 points, a bad-beat loss.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
SEA
home_underdog 1-5 ATS (17%)Home Underdog 1-5 ATS (17%)
NE
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
77°F
WIND
5 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NE@SEAW1 2026 | NE 10, SEA 13 | SEA | W |
| NE@SEAW2 2020 | NE 30, SEA 35 | NE | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSSEA vs NE
Our model takes Seattle Seahawks at 64% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project SEA by 4.7. The market has SEA at -3.5.
Seattle Seahawks won, SEA 23, NE 20. Our model had favored Seattle Seahawks at 64% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Seattle Seahawks at -3.5, meaning the book expects Seattle Seahawks to win by 3.5 points.
In Week 2, the Seattle Seahawks were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful) and the New England Patriots were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Week 2 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Seattle Seahawks, NE 10, SEA 13 in Week 1 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Seattle Seahawks: SEA -0.018 against NE -0.153.
