2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
LV @ BAL – Week 2 2024
LV
BAL
LV
AWAY
26@23
LV +3
FINAL · WEEK 2
2024 SEASON
BAL
HOME
TIER A
PICK: BAL
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: BAL 70%Projected margin: 5.9
BAL
PICK SIDE
-9.0
SPREAD
5.9
PROJ MARGIN
-365
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
BAL A-tier pick misses. LV takes it.
MISSED
Model picked BAL but LV won. Projected margin was 5.9 -- the model overestimated by 8.9 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 12.0 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -9.0 | BAL market line | |
| MODEL ML | -365 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -455 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
LV
divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
BAL
road_favorite 6-2 ATS (75%)Road Favorite 6-2 ATS (75%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
76°F
WIND
10 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
LV
B.Bowers
TE
262.7SEASON PPR
J.Meyers
WR
218.0SEASON PPR
A.Mattison
RB
137.4SEASON PPR
BAL
L.Jackson
QB
430.4SEASON PPR
D.Henry
RB
336.4SEASON PPR
Z.Flowers
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAL@LVW1 2021 | BAL 27, LV 33 | BAL | L |
WEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES