Raiders vs Ravens – Week 2 2024
LV
BAL
LV
AWAY
26@23
LV BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 2
2024 SEASON
M&T Bank Stadium · Baltimore, MD
BAL
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Las Vegas Raiders 26, Baltimore Ravens 23.
Going in, our model had favored Baltimore Ravens at 70% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 2 Raiders, 2 Ravens.
Model confidence: BAL 70%Our line: BAL -7.0
ODDS
SPREAD
BAL -9.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
BAL -7.0
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
BAL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
70%
BAL · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
80%
DIFFERENCE
-10%
| SOURCE | LV | BAL | BAL WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +350 | -455 | 79.9% |
WIN % is each book’s odds as a win chance, with the book’s cut taken out. The card above is their average.
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 2
-0.164Net EPA / play+0.269
-0.143 (31)Offense EPA / play+0.218 (1)
+0.021 (19)Defense EPA / play-0.051 (8)
40.5% (26)Offense success %50.0% (2)
GAME NARRATIVE
BAL A-tier pick misses. LV takes it.
MISSED
Model picked BAL but LV won. Projected margin was 7.0, the model overestimated by 10.0 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 12.0 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LV
divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
BAL
road_favorite 6-2 ATS (75%)Road Favorite 6-2 ATS (75%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
76°F
WIND
10 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Las Vegas RaidersPASSING
G.Minshew2013 yd · 9 TD · 10 INT
RUSHING
A.Mattison420 yd · 4 TD
A.Abdullah311 yd · 2 TD
Z.White183 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
B.Bowers112 rec · 1194 yd · 5 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAL@LVW1 2021 | BAL 27, LV 33 | BAL | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSLV vs BAL
Our model takes Baltimore Ravens at 70% win probability, a Tier A pick. The margin models project BAL by 7.0. The market has BAL at -9.0.
Las Vegas Raiders won, LV 26, BAL 23. Our model had favored Baltimore Ravens at 70% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Baltimore Ravens at -9.0, meaning the book expects Baltimore Ravens to win by 9.0 points.
In Week 2, the Las Vegas Raiders were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Baltimore Ravens were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Week 2 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Las Vegas Raiders, BAL 27, LV 33 in Week 1 of 2021.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Baltimore Ravens: LV -0.164 against BAL +0.269.
