LV @ BAL – Week 2 2024
LV
BAL
LV
AWAY
26@23
LV BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 2
2024 SEASON
M&T Bank Stadium · Baltimore, MD
BAL
HOME
Model confidence: BAL 70%Our line: BAL -7.0
BAL
PICK SIDE
-9.0
MARKET SPREAD
-7.0
OUR LINE
-231
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 2
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2024 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.164Net EPA / play+0.269
-0.143Offense EPA / play+0.218
+0.021Defense EPA / play-0.051
40.5%Offense success %50.0%
43.9%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
BAL A-tier pick misses. LV takes it.
MISSED
Model picked BAL but LV won. Projected margin was 7.0, the model overestimated by 10.0 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 12.0 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | LV | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +350 | -455 |
| Our fair price | +231 | -231 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD BAL -9.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
70%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
79%
DIFFERENCE
-9%
Both figures are for BAL. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LV
divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
BAL
road_favorite 6-2 ATS (75%)Road Favorite 6-2 ATS (75%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
76°F
WIND
10 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
LV
B.Bowers
TE
262.7 SEASON PPR
J.Meyers
WR
218.0 SEASON PPR
A.Mattison
RB
137.4 SEASON PPR
BAL
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Las Vegas RaidersPASSING
G.Minshew2013 yd · 9 TD · 10 INT
RUSHING
A.Mattison420 yd · 4 TD
A.Abdullah311 yd · 2 TD
Z.White183 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
B.Bowers112 rec · 1194 yd · 5 TD
J.Meyers87 rec · 1027 yd · 4 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAL@LVW1 2021 | BAL 27, LV 33 | BAL | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSLV vs BAL
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Baltimore Ravens at 70% win probability, a Tier A pick. The margin models project BAL by 7.0. The market has BAL at -9.0.
Week 2 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Las Vegas Raiders, BAL 27, LV 33 in Week 1 of 2021.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Baltimore Ravens: LV -0.164 against BAL +0.269.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
