NYG @ WAS – Week 2 2024
NYG
WAS
NYG
AWAY
18@21
WAS BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 2
2024 SEASON
Northwest Stadium · Landover, MD
WAS
HOME
Model confidence: WAS 50%Our line: WAS +0.0
WAS
PICK SIDE
-1.5
MARKET SPREAD
+0.0
OUR LINE
+100
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 2
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2024 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.170Net EPA / play+0.128
-0.107Offense EPA / play+0.139
+0.063Defense EPA / play+0.011
40.5%Offense success %48.5%
45.9%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
WAS C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked WAS. Projected margin: 0.0. Actual: 3. Off by 3.0 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 12 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 1.5 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | NYG | WAS |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +105 | -125 |
| Our fair price | -100 | +100 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD WAS -1.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.81
OUR NUMBER
50%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
53%
DIFFERENCE
-3%
Both figures are for WAS. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NYG
home_underdog 3-6 ATS (33%)divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)Home Underdog 3-6 ATS (33%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
WAS
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
82°F
WIND
11 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
NYG
M.Nabers
WR
273.6 SEASON PPR
W.Robinson
WR
182.7 SEASON PPR
T.Tracy
RB
182.3 SEASON PPR
WAS
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New York GiantsPASSING
D.Jones2070 yd · 8 TD · 7 INT
RUSHING
T.Tracy839 yd · 5 TD
D.Singletary437 yd · 4 TD
D.Jones265 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
M.Nabers109 rec · 1204 yd · 7 TD
W.Robinson93 rec · 699 yd · 3 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| WAS@NYGW15 2025 | WAS 29, NYG 21 | WAS | W |
| NYG@WASW1 2025 | NYG 6, WAS 21 | WAS | W |
| WAS@NYGW9 2024 | WAS 27, NYG 22 | WAS | W |
| NYG@WASW11 2023 | NYG 31, WAS 19 | WAS | L |
| WAS@NYGW7 2023 | WAS 7, NYG 14 | WAS | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSNYG vs WAS
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Washington Commanders at 50% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project NYG by 0.0. The market has WAS at -1.5.
Week 2 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Washington Commanders, WAS 29, NYG 21 in Week 15 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Washington Commanders: NYG -0.170 against WAS +0.128.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
