Falcons vs Eagles – Week 2 2024
ATL
PHI
ATL
AWAY
22@21
ATL BY 1
FINAL · WEEK 2
2024 SEASON
Lincoln Financial Field · Philadelphia, PA
PHI
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Atlanta Falcons 22, Philadelphia Eagles 21.
Going in, our model had favored Philadelphia Eagles at 67% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 2 Falcons.
Model confidence: PHI 67%Our line: PHI -6.1
ODDS
SPREAD
PHI -5.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
PHI -6.1
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
PHI · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
67%
PHI · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
70%
DIFFERENCE
-3%
| SOURCE | ATL | PHI | PHI WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +215 | -265 | 70.4% |
WIN % is each book’s odds as a win chance, with the book’s cut taken out. The card above is their average.
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 2
-0.027Net EPA / play+0.212
+0.034 (13)Offense EPA / play+0.114 (6)
+0.061 (27)Defense EPA / play-0.098 (2)
48.1% (5)Offense success %45.3% (13)
GAME NARRATIVE
PHI B-tier pick misses. ATL takes it.
MISSED
Model picked PHI but ATL won. Projected margin was 6.1, the model overestimated by 7.1 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 15 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 6.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
ATL
No noteworthy trends
PHI
divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)road_favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
71°F
WIND
9 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| PHI@ATLW1 2021 | PHI 32, ATL 6 | ATL | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSATL vs PHI
Our model takes Philadelphia Eagles at 67% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project PHI by 6.1. The market has PHI at -5.5.
Atlanta Falcons won, ATL 22, PHI 21. Our model had favored Philadelphia Eagles at 67% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Philadelphia Eagles at -5.5, meaning the book expects Philadelphia Eagles to win by 5.5 points.
In Week 2, the Atlanta Falcons were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Week 2 of the 2024 season, MON 8:15 PM.
Philadelphia Eagles, PHI 32, ATL 6 in Week 1 of 2021.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Philadelphia Eagles: ATL -0.027 against PHI +0.212.
