ATL @ PHI – Week 2 2024
ATL
PHI
ATL
AWAY
22@21
ATL BY 1
FINAL · WEEK 2
2024 SEASON
Lincoln Financial Field · Philadelphia, PA
PHI
HOME
Model confidence: PHI 67%Our line: PHI -6.1
PHI
PICK SIDE
-5.5
MARKET SPREAD
-6.1
OUR LINE
-208
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 2
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2024 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.027Net EPA / play+0.212
+0.034Offense EPA / play+0.114
+0.061Defense EPA / play-0.098
48.1%Offense success %45.3%
46.5%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
PHI B-tier pick misses. ATL takes it.
MISSED
Model picked PHI but ATL won. Projected margin was 6.1, the model overestimated by 7.1 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 15 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 6.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | ATL | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +215 | -265 |
| Our fair price | +208 | -208 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD PHI -5.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
67%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
70%
DIFFERENCE
-2%
Both figures are for PHI. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
ATL
No noteworthy trends
PHI
divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)road_favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
71°F
WIND
9 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
ATL
B.Robinson
RB
341.7 SEASON PPR
D.London
WR
280.8 SEASON PPR
D.Mooney
WR
193.2 SEASON PPR
PHI
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Atlanta FalconsPASSING
K.Cousins3508 yd · 18 TD · 16 INT
RUSHING
B.Robinson1456 yd · 14 TD
T.Allgeier644 yd · 3 TD
R.McCloud79 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
D.London100 rec · 1271 yd · 9 TD
D.Mooney64 rec · 992 yd · 5 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| PHI@ATLW1 2021 | PHI 32, ATL 6 | ATL | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSATL vs PHI
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Philadelphia Eagles at 67% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project PHI by 6.1. The market has PHI at -5.5.
Week 2 of the 2024 season, MON 8:15 PM.
Philadelphia Eagles, PHI 32, ATL 6 in Week 1 of 2021.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Philadelphia Eagles: ATL -0.027 against PHI +0.212.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the EdgeWEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
