2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
PHI @ ATL – Week 1 2021
PHI
ATL
PHI
AWAY
32@6
PHI +26
FINAL · WEEK 1
2021 SEASON
ATL
HOME
TIER C
PICK: ATL
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: ATL 54%Projected margin: 2.3
ATL
PICK SIDE
-3.5
SPREAD
2.3
PROJ MARGIN
-165
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
ATL C-tier pick misses. PHI takes it.
MISSED
Model picked ATL but PHI won. Projected margin was 2.3 -- the model overestimated by 28.3 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 29.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.5 | ATL market line | |
| MODEL ML | -165 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -180 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
PHI
Divisional 1-4 ATS (20%)Home Underdog 1-4 ATS (20%)
ATL
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
RETRACTABLE
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
PHI
Jalen Hurts
QB
312.2SEASON PPR
DeVonta Smith
WR
185.6SEASON PPR
Dallas Goedert
TE
165.0SEASON PPR
ATL
Cordarrelle Patterson
RB
234.6SEASON PPR
Matt Ryan
QB
222.9SEASON PPR
Kyle Pitts
TE
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATL@PHIW2 2024 | ATL 22, PHI 21 | PHI | L |
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES