Eagles vs Falcons – Week 1 2021
PHI
ATL
PHI
AWAY
32@6
PHI BY 26
FINAL · WEEK 1
2021 SEASON
Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Atlanta, GA
ATL
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Philadelphia Eagles 32, Atlanta Falcons 6.
Going in, our model had favored Atlanta Falcons at 54% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 2 Eagles.
Model confidence: ATL 54%Our line: ATL -1.5
ODDS
SPREAD
ATL -3.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
ATL -1.5
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
ATL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
54%
ATL · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
63%
DIFFERENCE
-9%
| SOURCE | PHI | ATL | ATL WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +161 | -180 | 63.0% |
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
+0.059Net EPA / play-0.180
+0.070 (10)Offense EPA / play-0.098 (28)
+0.011 (17)Defense EPA / play+0.082 (29)
46.9% (8)Offense success %40.4% (29)
GAME NARRATIVE
ATL C-tier pick misses. PHI takes it.
MISSED
Model picked ATL but PHI won. Projected margin was 1.5, the model overestimated by 27.5 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 29.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
PHI
Divisional 1-4 ATS (20%)Home Underdog 1-4 ATS (20%)
ATL
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
RETRACTABLE
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATL@PHIW2 2024 | ATL 22, PHI 21 | PHI | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSPHI vs ATL
Our model takes Atlanta Falcons at 54% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project ATL by 1.5. The market has ATL at -3.5.
Philadelphia Eagles won, PHI 32, ATL 6. Our model had favored Atlanta Falcons at 54% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Atlanta Falcons at -3.5, meaning the book expects Atlanta Falcons to win by 3.5 points.
In Week 1, the Philadelphia Eagles were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Week 1 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Atlanta Falcons, ATL 22, PHI 21 in Week 2 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Philadelphia Eagles: PHI +0.059 against ATL -0.180.
