PHI @ ATL – Week 1 2021
PHI
ATL
PHI
AWAY
32@6
PHI BY 26
FINAL · WEEK 1
2021 SEASON
Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Atlanta, GA
ATL
HOME
Model confidence: ATL 54%Our line: ATL -1.5
ATL
PICK SIDE
-3.5
MARKET SPREAD
-1.5
OUR LINE
-119
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2021 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.059Net EPA / play-0.180
+0.070Offense EPA / play-0.098
+0.011Defense EPA / play+0.082
46.9%Offense success %40.4%
46.1%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
ATL C-tier pick misses. PHI takes it.
MISSED
Model picked ATL but PHI won. Projected margin was 1.5, the model overestimated by 27.5 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 29.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | PHI | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +161 | -180 |
| Our fair price | +119 | -119 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD ATL -3.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
54%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
63%
DIFFERENCE
-8%
Both figures are for ATL. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
PHI
Divisional 1-4 ATS (20%)Home Underdog 1-4 ATS (20%)
ATL
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
RETRACTABLE
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
PHI
Jalen Hurts
QB
312.2 SEASON PPR
DeVonta Smith
WR
185.6 SEASON PPR
Dallas Goedert
TE
165.0 SEASON PPR
ATL
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Philadelphia EaglesPASSING
Jalen Hurts3144 yd · 16 TD · 9 INT
RUSHING
Jalen Hurts784 yd · 10 TD
Miles Sanders754 yd · 0 TD
Jordan Howard406 yd · 3 TD
RECEIVING
DeVonta Smith64 rec · 916 yd · 5 TD
Dallas Goedert56 rec · 830 yd · 4 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATL@PHIW2 2024 | ATL 22, PHI 21 | PHI | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSPHI vs ATL
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Atlanta Falcons at 54% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project ATL by 1.5. The market has ATL at -3.5.
Week 1 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Atlanta Falcons, ATL 22, PHI 21 in Week 2 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Philadelphia Eagles: PHI +0.059 against ATL -0.180.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
