JAX @ HOU – Week 1 2021
JAX
HOU
JAX
AWAY
21@37
HOU BY 16
FINAL · WEEK 1
2021 SEASON
NRG Stadium · Houston, TX
HOU
HOME
Model confidence: HOU 59%Our line: HOU -3.2
HOU
PICK SIDE
+3.5
MARKET SPREAD
-3.2
OUR LINE
-146
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2021 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.206Net EPA / play-0.212
-0.088Offense EPA / play-0.138
+0.118Defense EPA / play+0.074
44.0%Offense success %37.4%
47.1%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
HOU B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked HOU. Projected margin: 3.2. Actual: 16. Off by 12.8 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 19.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | JAX | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -172 | +154 |
| Our fair price | +146 | -146 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD HOU +3.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$1.65
OUR NUMBER
59%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
38%
DIFFERENCE
+21%
Both figures are for HOU. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
JAX
Home Underdog 3-5 ATS (38%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
HOU
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 5-3 ATS (63%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
JAX
Trevor Lawrence
QB
199.0 SEASON PPR
Marvin Jones
WR
180.2 SEASON PPR
James Robinson
RB
173.9 SEASON PPR
HOU
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Jacksonville JaguarsPASSING
Trevor Lawrence3641 yd · 12 TD · 17 INT
RUSHING
James Robinson767 yd · 8 TD
Trevor Lawrence334 yd · 2 TD
Carlos Hyde253 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
Marvin Jones73 rec · 832 yd · 4 TD
Laviska Shenault Jr.63 rec · 619 yd · 0 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| JAX@HOUW10 2025 | JAX 29, HOU 36 | JAX | L |
| HOU@JAXW3 2025 | HOU 10, JAX 17 | JAX | W |
| HOU@JAXW13 2024 | HOU 23, JAX 20 | HOU | W |
| JAX@HOUW4 2024 | JAX 20, HOU 24 | HOU | W |
| JAX@HOUW12 2023 | JAX 24, HOU 21 | JAX | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSJAX vs HOU
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Houston Texans at 59% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project HOU by 3.2. The market has HOU at +3.5.
Week 1 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Houston Texans, JAX 29, HOU 36 in Week 10 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Jacksonville Jaguars: JAX -0.206 against HOU -0.212.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
