Jaguars vs Texans – Week 1 2021
JAX
HOU
JAX
AWAY
21@37
HOU BY 16
FINAL · WEEK 1
2021 SEASON
NRG Stadium · Houston, TX
HOU
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Jacksonville Jaguars 21, Houston Texans 37.
Going in, our model had favored Houston Texans at 59% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Jaguars, 2 Texans.
Model confidence: HOU 59%Our line: HOU -3.2
ODDS
SPREAD
HOU +3.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
HOU -3.2
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
HOU · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
59%
HOU · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
38%
DIFFERENCE
+21%
| SOURCE | JAX | HOU | HOU WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -172 | +154 | 38.1% |
WIN % is each book’s odds as a win chance, with the book’s cut taken out. The card above is their average.
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
-0.206Net EPA / play-0.212
-0.088 (26)Offense EPA / play-0.138 (31)
+0.118 (31)Defense EPA / play+0.074 (28)
44.0% (18)Offense success %37.4% (32)
GAME NARRATIVE
HOU B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked HOU. Projected margin: 3.2. Actual: 16. Off by 12.8 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 19.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
JAX
Home Underdog 3-5 ATS (38%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
HOU
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 5-3 ATS (63%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
HOU
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOU@JAXW6 2026 | HOU 34, JAX 31 | JAX | L |
| JAX@HOUW10 2025 | JAX 29, HOU 36 | JAX | L |
| HOU@JAXW3 2025 | HOU 10, JAX 17 | JAX | W |
| HOU@JAXW13 2024 | HOU 23, JAX 20 | HOU | W |
| JAX@HOUW4 2024 | JAX 20, HOU 24 | HOU | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSJAX vs HOU
Our model takes Houston Texans at 59% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project HOU by 3.2. The market has HOU at +3.5.
Houston Texans won, JAX 21, HOU 37. Our model had favored Houston Texans at 59% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Houston Texans at +3.5, meaning the book expects Houston Texans to win by 3.5 points.
In Week 1, the Jacksonville Jaguars were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Houston Texans were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Week 1 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Houston Texans, HOU 34, JAX 31 in Week 6 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Jacksonville Jaguars: JAX -0.206 against HOU -0.212.
