2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
CLE @ KC – Week 1 2021
CLE
KC
CLE
AWAY
29@33
KC +4
FINAL · WEEK 1
2021 SEASON
KC
HOME
TIER B
PICK: KC
PICK WONATS ✗
Model confidence: KC 59%Projected margin: 5.4
KC
PICK SIDE
-5.5
SPREAD
5.4
PROJ MARGIN
-221
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
KC B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected KC by 5.4. Actual: 4 points. The model was within 1.4 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 1.5 points -- a bad-beat loss.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -5.5 | KC market line | |
| MODEL ML | -221 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -241 | Won · +$0.45 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
CLE
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
KC
Windy 4-1 ATS (80%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
88°F
WIND
8 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
CLE
Nick Chubb
RB
215.3SEASON PPR
Baker Mayfield
QB
180.9SEASON PPR
Jarvis Landry
WR
133.0SEASON PPR
KC
Patrick Mahomes
QB
361.7SEASON PPR
Tyreek Hill
WR
296.5SEASON PPR
Travis Kelce
TE
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| KC@CLEW15 2024 | KC 21, CLE 7 | KC | W |
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES