Browns vs Chiefs – Week 1 2021
CLE
KC
CLE
AWAY
29@33
KC BY 4
FINAL · WEEK 1
2021 SEASON
GEHA Field at Arrowhead · Kansas City, MO
KC
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Cleveland Browns 29, Kansas City Chiefs 33.
Going in, our model had favored Kansas City Chiefs at 59% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Browns, 1 Chiefs.
Model confidence: KC 59%Our line: KC -3.0
ODDS
SPREAD
KC -5.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
KC -3.0
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
KC · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
59%
KC · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
69%
DIFFERENCE
-10%
| SOURCE | CLE | KC | KC WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +211 | -241 | 69.3% |
WIN % is each book’s odds as a win chance, with the book’s cut taken out. The card above is their average.
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
+0.012Net EPA / play+0.119
+0.013 (18)Offense EPA / play+0.144 (1)
+0.001 (14)Defense EPA / play+0.025 (20)
43.9% (19)Offense success %51.1% (1)
GAME NARRATIVE
KC B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected KC by 3.0. Actual: 4 points. The model was within 1.0 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 1.5 points, a bad-beat loss.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CLE
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
KC
Windy 4-1 ATS (80%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
88°F
WIND
8 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
KC
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCLE vs KC
Our model takes Kansas City Chiefs at 59% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project KC by 3.0. The market has KC at -5.5.
Kansas City Chiefs won, CLE 29, KC 33. Our model had favored Kansas City Chiefs at 59% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Kansas City Chiefs at -5.5, meaning the book expects Kansas City Chiefs to win by 5.5 points.
In Week 1, the Cleveland Browns were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Kansas City Chiefs were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Week 1 of the 2021 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Kansas City Chiefs, KC 21, CLE 7 in Week 15 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Kansas City Chiefs: CLE +0.012 against KC +0.119.
