CLE @ KC – Week 1 2021
CLE
KC
CLE
AWAY
29@33
KC BY 4
FINAL · WEEK 1
2021 SEASON
GEHA Field at Arrowhead · Kansas City, MO
KC
HOME
Model confidence: KC 59%Our line: KC -3.0
KC
PICK SIDE
-5.5
MARKET SPREAD
-3.0
OUR LINE
-142
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2021 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.012Net EPA / play+0.119
+0.013Offense EPA / play+0.144
+0.001Defense EPA / play+0.025
43.9%Offense success %51.1%
41.4%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
KC B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected KC by 3.0. Actual: 4 points. The model was within 1.0 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 1.5 points, a bad-beat loss.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | CLE | KC |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +211 | -241 |
| Our fair price | +142 | -142 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD KC -5.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.45
OUR NUMBER
59%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
69%
DIFFERENCE
-10%
Both figures are for KC. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CLE
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
KC
Windy 4-1 ATS (80%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
88°F
WIND
8 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
CLE
Nick Chubb
RB
215.3 SEASON PPR
Baker Mayfield
QB
180.9 SEASON PPR
Jarvis Landry
WR
133.0 SEASON PPR
KC
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Cleveland BrownsPASSING
Baker Mayfield3010 yd · 17 TD · 13 INT
RUSHING
Nick Chubb1259 yd · 8 TD
D'Ernest Johnson534 yd · 3 TD
Kareem Hunt386 yd · 5 TD
RECEIVING
Donovan Peoples-Jones34 rec · 597 yd · 3 TD
Jarvis Landry52 rec · 570 yd · 2 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
COMMON QUESTIONSCLE vs KC
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Kansas City Chiefs at 59% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project KC by 3.0. The market has KC at -5.5.
Week 1 of the 2021 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Kansas City Chiefs, KC 21, CLE 7 in Week 15 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Kansas City Chiefs: CLE +0.012 against KC +0.119.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
