ARI @ TEN – Week 1 2021
ARI
TEN
ARI
AWAY
38@13
ARI BY 25
FINAL · WEEK 1
2021 SEASON
Nissan Stadium · Nashville, TN
TEN
HOME
Model confidence: TEN 62%Our line: TEN -4.0
TEN
PICK SIDE
-2.5
MARKET SPREAD
-4.0
OUR LINE
-160
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2021 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.122Net EPA / play+0.055
+0.073Offense EPA / play+0.022
-0.049Defense EPA / play-0.033
46.8%Offense success %44.6%
44.3%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
TEN B-tier pick misses. ARI takes it.
MISSED
Model picked TEN but ARI won. Projected margin was 4.0, the model overestimated by 29.0 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 27.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | ARI | TEN |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +131 | -146 |
| Our fair price | +160 | -160 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD TEN -2.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
62%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
58%
DIFFERENCE
+4%
Both figures are for TEN. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
ARI
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
TEN
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
82°F
WIND
8 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
ARI
Kyler Murray
QB
300.5 SEASON PPR
James Conner
RB
257.7 SEASON PPR
Christian Kirk
WR
207.6 SEASON PPR
TEN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Arizona CardinalsPASSING
Kyler Murray3787 yd · 24 TD · 10 INT
RUSHING
James Conner752 yd · 15 TD
Chase Edmonds592 yd · 2 TD
Kyler Murray423 yd · 5 TD
RECEIVING
Christian Kirk77 rec · 982 yd · 5 TD
A.J. Green54 rec · 848 yd · 3 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TEN@ARIW5 2025 | TEN 22, ARI 21 | ARI | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSARI vs TEN
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Tennessee Titans at 62% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project TEN by 4.0. The market has TEN at -2.5.
Week 1 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Tennessee Titans, TEN 22, ARI 21 in Week 5 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Arizona Cardinals: ARI +0.122 against TEN +0.055.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the EdgeWEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
