Cardinals vs Titans – Week 1 2021
ARI
TEN
ARI
AWAY
38@13
ARI BY 25
FINAL · WEEK 1
2021 SEASON
Nissan Stadium · Nashville, TN
TEN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Arizona Cardinals 38, Tennessee Titans 13.
Going in, our model had favored Tennessee Titans at 62% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 2 Cardinals, 1 Titans.
Model confidence: TEN 62%Our line: TEN -4.0
ODDS
SPREAD
TEN -2.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
TEN -4.0
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
TEN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
62%
TEN · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
58%
DIFFERENCE
+4%
| SOURCE | ARI | TEN | TEN WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +131 | -146 | 58.0% |
WIN % is each book’s odds as a win chance, with the book’s cut taken out. The card above is their average.
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
+0.122Net EPA / play+0.055
+0.073 (9)Offense EPA / play+0.022 (15)
-0.049 (6)Defense EPA / play-0.033 (9)
46.8% (9)Offense success %44.6% (15)
GAME NARRATIVE
TEN B-tier pick misses. ARI takes it.
MISSED
Model picked TEN but ARI won. Projected margin was 4.0, the model overestimated by 29.0 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 27.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
ARI
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
TEN
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
82°F
WIND
8 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
ARI
Kyler Murray
QB
300.5 SEASON PPR
James Conner
RB
257.7 SEASON PPR
Christian Kirk
WR
207.6 SEASON PPR
TEN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Arizona CardinalsPASSING
Kyler Murray3787 yd · 24 TD · 10 INT
RUSHING
James Conner752 yd · 15 TD
Chase Edmonds592 yd · 2 TD
Kyler Murray423 yd · 5 TD
RECEIVING
Christian Kirk77 rec · 982 yd · 5 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TEN@ARIW5 2025 | TEN 22, ARI 21 | ARI | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSARI vs TEN
Our model takes Tennessee Titans at 62% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project TEN by 4.0. The market has TEN at -2.5.
Arizona Cardinals won, ARI 38, TEN 13. Our model had favored Tennessee Titans at 62% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Tennessee Titans at -2.5, meaning the book expects Tennessee Titans to win by 2.5 points.
In Week 1, the Arizona Cardinals were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Tennessee Titans were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Week 1 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Tennessee Titans, TEN 22, ARI 21 in Week 5 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Arizona Cardinals: ARI +0.122 against TEN +0.055.
