TEN @ ARI – Week 5 2025
TEN
ARI
TEN
AWAY
22@21
TEN BY 1
FINAL · WEEK 5
2025 SEASON
State Farm Stadium · Glendale, AZ
ARI
HOME
Model confidence: ARI 79%Our line: ARI -10.7
ARI
PICK SIDE
-7.5
MARKET SPREAD
-10.7
OUR LINE
-369
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 5
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.260Net EPA / play-0.107
-0.160Offense EPA / play-0.018
+0.100Defense EPA / play+0.088
37.4%Offense success %43.0%
45.1%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
ARI A+-tier pick misses. TEN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked ARI but TEN won. Projected margin was 10.7, the model overestimated by 11.7 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 8.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | TEN | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +330 | -425 |
| Our fair price | +369 | -369 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD ARI -7.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
79%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
78%
DIFFERENCE
+1%
Both figures are for ARI. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
TEN
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
ARI
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)Home Underdog 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
TEN
C.Ward
QB
186.7 SEASON PPR
T.Pollard
RB
185.8 SEASON PPR
C.Dike
WR
128.1 SEASON PPR
ARI
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Tennessee TitansPASSING
C.Ward3169 yd · 15 TD · 7 INT
RUSHING
T.Pollard1082 yd · 5 TD
T.Spears283 yd · 2 TD
C.Ward159 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
C.Okonkwo56 rec · 560 yd · 2 TD
E.Ayomanor41 rec · 515 yd · 4 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARI@TENW1 2021 | ARI 38, TEN 13 | TEN | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSTEN vs ARI
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Arizona Cardinals at 79% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project ARI by 10.7. The market has ARI at -7.5.
The model projects 46.3 combined points. The market total is 41.5.
Week 5 of the 2025 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Arizona Cardinals, ARI 38, TEN 13 in Week 1 of 2021.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Arizona Cardinals: TEN -0.260 against ARI -0.107.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
