2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
TEN @ ARI – Week 5 2025
TEN
ARI
TEN
AWAY
22@21
TEN +1
FINAL · WEEK 5
2025 SEASON
ARI
HOME
TIER A+
PICK: ARI
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: ARI 79%Projected margin: 9.3
ARI
PICK SIDE
-7.5
SPREAD
9.3
PROJ MARGIN
-294
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
ARI A+-tier pick misses. TEN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked ARI but TEN won. Projected margin was 9.3 -- the model overestimated by 10.3 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 8.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -7.5 | ARI market line | |
| MODEL ML | -294 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | — | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
TEN
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
ARI
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)Home Underdog 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
TEN
C.Ward
QB
186.7SEASON PPR
T.Pollard
RB
185.8SEASON PPR
C.Dike
WR
128.1SEASON PPR
ARI
T.McBride
TE
315.9SEASON PPR
J.Brissett
QB
227.4SEASON PPR
Mi.Wilson
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARI@TENW1 2021 | ARI 38, TEN 13 | TEN | L |
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES