Titans vs Cardinals – Week 5 2025
TEN
ARI
TEN
AWAY
22@21
TEN BY 1
FINAL · WEEK 5
2025 SEASON
State Farm Stadium · Glendale, AZ
ARI
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Tennessee Titans 22, Arizona Cardinals 21.
Going in, our model had favored Arizona Cardinals at 79% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 4 Titans, 2 Cardinals.
Model confidence: ARI 79%Our line: ARI -10.7
ODDS
SPREAD
ARI -7.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
ARI -10.7
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
ARI · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 5
-0.260Net EPA / play-0.107
-0.160 (30)Offense EPA / play-0.018 (23)
+0.100 (28)Defense EPA / play+0.088 (27)
37.4% (31)Offense success %43.0% (22)
GAME NARRATIVE
ARI A+-tier pick misses. TEN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked ARI but TEN won. Projected margin was 10.7, the model overestimated by 11.7 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 8.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
TEN
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
ARI
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)Home Underdog 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARI@TENW1 2021 | ARI 38, TEN 13 | TEN | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSTEN vs ARI
Our model takes Arizona Cardinals at 79% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project ARI by 10.7. The market has ARI at -7.5.
Tennessee Titans won, TEN 22, ARI 21. Our model had favored Arizona Cardinals at 79% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Arizona Cardinals at -7.5, meaning the book expects Arizona Cardinals to win by 7.5 points.
In Week 5, the Tennessee Titans were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Arizona Cardinals were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 41.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.3, 4.8 above the market.
Week 5 of the 2025 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Arizona Cardinals, ARI 38, TEN 13 in Week 1 of 2021.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Arizona Cardinals: TEN -0.260 against ARI -0.107.
