Chiefs vs Jaguars – Week 5 2025
KC
JAX
KC
AWAY
28@31
JAX BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 5
2025 SEASON
EverBank Stadium · Jacksonville, FL
JAX
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Kansas City Chiefs 28, Jacksonville Jaguars 31.
Going in, our model had favored Jacksonville Jaguars at 50% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Jaguars.
Model confidence: JAX 50%Our line: JAX +0.0
ODDS
SPREAD
JAX +3.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
JAX +0.0
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
JAX · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
50%
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 5
+0.055Net EPA / play+0.136
+0.035 (11)Offense EPA / play+0.030 (14)
-0.020 (12)Defense EPA / play-0.105 (3)
44.5% (14)Offense success %44.4% (15)
GAME NARRATIVE
JAX C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked JAX. Projected margin: 0.0. Actual: 3. Off by 3.0 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 6.5 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
KC
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Road Favorite 1-7 ATS (13%)
JAX
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
80°F
WIND
12 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| KC@JAXW2 2023 | KC 17, JAX 9 | KC | W |
| JAX@KCW10 2022 | JAX 17, KC 27 | KC | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSKC vs JAX
Our model takes Jacksonville Jaguars at 50% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project KC by 0.0. The market has JAX at +3.5.
Jacksonville Jaguars won, KC 28, JAX 31. Our model had favored Jacksonville Jaguars at 50% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Jacksonville Jaguars at +3.5, meaning the book expects Jacksonville Jaguars to win by 3.5 points.
In Week 5, the Jacksonville Jaguars were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 45.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.8, 0.3 above the market.
Week 5 of the 2025 season, MON 8:15 PM.
Kansas City Chiefs, KC 17, JAX 9 in Week 2 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Jacksonville Jaguars: KC +0.055 against JAX +0.136.
