KC @ JAX – Week 5 2025
KC
JAX
KC
AWAY
28@31
JAX BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 5
2025 SEASON
EverBank Stadium · Jacksonville, FL
JAX
HOME
Model confidence: JAX 50%Our line: JAX +0.0
JAX
PICK SIDE
+3.5
MARKET SPREAD
+0.0
OUR LINE
+100
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 5
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.055Net EPA / play+0.136
+0.035Offense EPA / play+0.030
-0.020Defense EPA / play-0.105
44.5%Offense success %44.4%
43.6%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
JAX C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked JAX. Projected margin: 0.0. Actual: 3. Off by 3.0 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 6.5 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | KC | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -198 | +164 |
| Our fair price | -100 | +100 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD JAX +3.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$1.65
OUR NUMBER
50%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
36%
DIFFERENCE
+14%
Both figures are for JAX. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
KC
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Road Favorite 1-7 ATS (13%)
JAX
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
80°F
WIND
12 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
KC
P.Mahomes
QB
285.7 SEASON PPR
T.Kelce
TE
193.2 SEASON PPR
R.Rice
WR
150.1 SEASON PPR
JAX
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Kansas City ChiefsPASSING
P.Mahomes3587 yd · 22 TD · 11 INT
RUSHING
K.Hunt611 yd · 8 TD
I.Pacheco462 yd · 1 TD
P.Mahomes422 yd · 5 TD
RECEIVING
T.Kelce76 rec · 851 yd · 5 TD
M.Brown49 rec · 587 yd · 5 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| KC@JAXW2 2023 | KC 17, JAX 9 | KC | W |
| JAX@KCW10 2022 | JAX 17, KC 27 | KC | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSKC vs JAX
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Jacksonville Jaguars at 50% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project KC by 0.0. The market has JAX at +3.5.
The model projects 45.8 combined points. The market total is 45.5.
Week 5 of the 2025 season, MON 8:15 PM.
Kansas City Chiefs, KC 17, JAX 9 in Week 2 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Jacksonville Jaguars: KC +0.055 against JAX +0.136.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the EdgeWEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
