2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
KC @ JAX – Week 5 2025
KC
JAX
KC
AWAY
28@31
JAX +3
FINAL · WEEK 5
2025 SEASON
JAX
HOME
TIER C
PICK: JAX
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: JAX 50%Projected margin: 0.2
JAX
PICK SIDE
+3.5
SPREAD
0.2
PROJ MARGIN
+165
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
JAX C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected JAX by 0.2. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 2.8 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 6.5 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | +3.5 | JAX market line | |
| MODEL ML | +165 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | +165 | Won · +$1.65 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
KC
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Road Favorite 1-7 ATS (13%)
JAX
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
80°F
WIND
12 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
KC
P.Mahomes
QB
285.7SEASON PPR
T.Kelce
TE
193.2SEASON PPR
R.Rice
WR
150.1SEASON PPR
JAX
T.Lawrence
QB
338.2SEASON PPR
T.Etienne
RB
253.9SEASON PPR
P.Washington
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| KC@JAXW2 2023 | KC 17, JAX 9 | KC | W |
| JAX@KCW10 2022 | JAX 17, KC 27 | KC | W |
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES