Jaguars vs Chiefs – Week 10 2022
JAX
KC
JAX
AWAY
17@27
KC BY 10
FINAL · WEEK 10
2022 SEASON
GEHA Field at Arrowhead · Kansas City, MO
KC
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Jacksonville Jaguars 17, Kansas City Chiefs 27.
Going in, our model had favored Kansas City Chiefs at 74% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Chiefs.
Model confidence: KC 74%Our line: KC -8.5
ODDS
SPREAD
KC -10.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
KC -8.5
OUR LINE
PUSH
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
KC · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
74%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 10
+0.067Net EPA / play+0.204
+0.046 (8)Offense EPA / play+0.186 (1)
-0.021 (13)Defense EPA / play-0.019 (14)
46.3% (5)Offense success %50.4% (1)
GAME NARRATIVE
KC A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected KC by 8.5. Actual: 10 points. The model was within 1.5 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
PUSH
Final margin landed exactly on the spread (-10.0). Push, no winner ATS.
COLD GAME
33°F at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
JAX
No noteworthy trends
KC
Road Favorite 3-5 ATS (38%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
33°F
WIND
7 MPH
COLD GAME
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
JAX
295.6 SEASON PPR
Christian Kirk
WR
241.9 SEASON PPR
205.1 SEASON PPR
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 10
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| KC@JAXW5 2025 | KC 28, JAX 31 | JAX | W |
| KC@JAXW2 2023 | KC 17, JAX 9 | KC | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 10 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSJAX vs KC
Our model takes Kansas City Chiefs at 74% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project KC by 8.5. The market has KC at -10.0.
Kansas City Chiefs won, JAX 17, KC 27. Our model had favored Kansas City Chiefs at 74% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Kansas City Chiefs at -10.0, meaning the book expects Kansas City Chiefs to win by 10.0 points.
In Week 10, the Kansas City Chiefs were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 51.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.9, 5.6 below the market.
Week 10 of the 2022 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Jacksonville Jaguars, KC 28, JAX 31 in Week 5 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Kansas City Chiefs: JAX +0.067 against KC +0.204.
