2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
JAX @ KC – Week 10 2022
JAX
KC
JAX
AWAY
17@27
KC +10
FINAL · WEEK 10
2022 SEASON
KC
HOME
TIER A+
PICK: KC
PICK WONATS PUSH
Model confidence: KC 74%Projected margin: 8.1
KC
PICK SIDE
-10.0
SPREAD
8.1
PROJ MARGIN
-422
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
PUSH
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
KC A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected KC by 8.1. Actual: 10 points. The model was within 1.9 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
PUSH
Final margin landed exactly on the spread (+10.0). Push -- no winner ATS.
COLD GAME
33°F at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -10.0 | KC market line | |
| MODEL ML | -422 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -399 | Won · +$0.24 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
JAX
No noteworthy trends
KC
Road Favorite 3-5 ATS (38%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
33°F
WIND
7 MPH
COLD GAME
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
JAX
Trevor Lawrence
QB
295.6SEASON PPR
Christian Kirk
WR
241.9SEASON PPR
Travis Etienne
RB
205.1SEASON PPR
KC
Patrick Mahomes
QB
417.4SEASON PPR
Travis Kelce
TE
316.3SEASON PPR
Jerick McKinnon
INJURY REPORTWEEK 10
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| KC@JAXW5 2025 | KC 28, JAX 31 | JAX | W |
| KC@JAXW2 2023 | KC 17, JAX 9 | KC | W |
WEEK 10 · OTHER GAMES