Saints vs Steelers – Week 10 2022
NO
PIT
NO
AWAY
10@20
PIT BY 10
FINAL · WEEK 10
2022 SEASON
Acrisure Stadium · Pittsburgh, PA
PIT
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New Orleans Saints 10, Pittsburgh Steelers 20.
Going in, our model had favored New Orleans Saints at 59% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 5 Saints, 3 Steelers.
Model confidence: NO 59%Our line: NO -3.2
ODDS
SPREAD
NO +1.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
NO -3.2
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
NO · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
59%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 10
+0.018Net EPA / play-0.012
-0.038 (21)Offense EPA / play+0.012 (12)
-0.056 (6)Defense EPA / play+0.024 (26)
45.7% (8)Offense success %45.1% (12)
GAME NARRATIVE
NO B-tier pick misses. PIT takes it.
MISSED
Model picked NO but PIT won. Projected margin was 3.2, the model overestimated by 13.2 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 9.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NO
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
PIT
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
37°F
WIND
15 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
PIT
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New Orleans SaintsPASSING
Andy Dalton2871 yd · 18 TD · 9 INT
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 10
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 10 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNO vs PIT
Our model takes New Orleans Saints at 59% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project NO by 3.2. The market has NO at +1.0.
Pittsburgh Steelers won, NO 10, PIT 20. Our model had favored New Orleans Saints at 59% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has New Orleans Saints at +1.0, meaning the book expects New Orleans Saints to win by 1.0 points.
In Week 10, the New Orleans Saints were without 5 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Pittsburgh Steelers were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 39.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.4, 5.9 above the market.
Week 10 of the 2022 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, New Orleans Saints: NO +0.018 against PIT -0.012.
