NO @ PIT – Week 10 2022
NO
PIT
NO
AWAY
10@20
PIT BY 10
FINAL · WEEK 10
2022 SEASON
Acrisure Stadium · Pittsburgh, PA
PIT
HOME
Model confidence: NO 59%Our line: NO -3.2
NO
PICK SIDE
+1.0
MARKET SPREAD
-3.2
OUR LINE
-146
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 10
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2022 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.018Net EPA / play-0.012
-0.038Offense EPA / play+0.012
-0.056Defense EPA / play+0.024
45.7%Offense success %45.1%
41.3%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
NO B-tier pick misses. PIT takes it.
MISSED
Model picked NO but PIT won. Projected margin was 3.2, the model overestimated by 13.2 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 9.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | NO | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +105 | -116 |
| Our fair price | -146 | +146 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD NO +1.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
59%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
48%
DIFFERENCE
+12%
Both figures are for NO. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NO
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
PIT
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
37°F
WIND
15 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
NO
Alvin Kamara
RB
211.7 SEASON PPR
Chris Olave
WR
198.2 SEASON PPR
Andy Dalton
QB
174.2 SEASON PPR
PIT
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New Orleans SaintsPASSING
Andy Dalton2871 yd · 18 TD · 9 INT
RUSHING
Alvin Kamara897 yd · 2 TD
Mark Ingram233 yd · 1 TD
Rashid Shaheed57 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
Chris Olave72 rec · 1042 yd · 4 TD
Juwan Johnson42 rec · 508 yd · 7 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 10
COMMON QUESTIONSNO vs PIT
QUESTIONS
Our model takes New Orleans Saints at 59% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project NO by 3.2. The market has NO at +1.0.
The model projects 45.4 combined points. The market total is 39.5.
Week 10 of the 2022 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, New Orleans Saints: NO +0.018 against PIT -0.012.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 10 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
